9 April 2012
Markets have taken a turn for the better over the past quarter with the S&P 500 index of large cap US stocks recording one of its strongest starts since 1928.
10 January 2012
Macro risks have been a prominent feature of the past quarter with investors focussed on the twists and turns of the Euro crisis, the prospects for fiscal policy in the US and the likelihood of a hard landing in China.
24 October 2011
Fears of a double dip recession in the US, a hard landing in China and sovereign debt concerns in the Eurozone drove risk assets lower in the third quarter. Investors sought the safe haven of US Treasuries, despite a downgrade to their credit rating, whilst German Bund and UK Gilt yields also fell to new lows. Gold and Asian currencies benefitted, although sold off towards the end of the quarter as the US dollar began to strengthen.
11 July 2011
The past quarter has seen the return of risk aversion with equity markets weakening on fears for the strength of global activity, and the return of the Greek sovereign debt crisis. Macro economic data took a distinctly stagflationary turn as growth expectations fell whilst inflation rose.
8 April 2011
The first quarter brought two major shocks to markets: escalating political tension in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and natural disaster in Japan. Whilst our sympathies are with those directly affected, such unpredictable events present major challenges, as they are outside the historical experience of most investors. The key question is whether the shocks will derail global activity and with it risk assets, which have been underpinned by the revival in growth.
7 January 2011
The final quarter of 2010 saw a revival in risk appetite as fears of a double dip faded. Equity markets rallied on the back of better economic news as the lull in economic activity during the summer gave way to signs of stronger growth in the world economy. Orders and output, as measured by the purchasing managers? indices, rose and retail spending in the US picked up.
4 October 2010
The quarter has been dominated by talk of a double dip and fears that the world economy is about to stall. Forecasts for growth have been downgraded and surveys confirm that global activity has cooled. In turn, expectations for higher interest rates have been pushed out further into next year as central banks have signalled increasing concern about the strength of the recovery. The US Federal Reserve and Bank of England are actively considering a further round of asset purchases or quantitative easing (QE).
2 July 2010
It has been a poor quarter for risk assets with equity markets falling sharply whilst US treasury bonds have rallied. Investors have become increasingly concerned about the crisis in the Eurozone with many now questioning whether the single currency will still exist in a few years time.
22 March 2010
Equity markets have made a volatile start to the year with the S&P 500 losing ground in January and February before rallying in March. The global recovery continues, but the new year has brought new worries causing investors to pause for breath after the record gains of the last year.
5 January 2010
Heading into 2010, markets appear to be pausing for breath, holding their ground but reluctant to make new highs. Recovery plays and high beta sectors have lost ground and the US dollar has staged a rally after weakening for much of the year alongside the rally in risk assets.
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