Economic Viewpoint
| List Of Documents |
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| Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - April 2008 (148 KB)
Recent action by the Federal Reserve appears to have reduced the tail risk associated with an outright financial meltdown. However, stresses within the financial sector remain and the transmission mechanism from monetary policy to the real economy is impaired. |
| Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - August 2008 (147 KB)
There is increasing evidence that the US slowdown is spreading to the rest of the world with output in Europe and Japan falling in the second quarter. We would attribute this to the global impact of the commodity price shock combined with continuing effects from the credit crunch in Europe. |
| Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - January 2008 (117 KB)
The US economy took a significant turn for the worse at the end of last year with unemployment rising sharply and business surveys indicating a sharp down turn in activity. |
| Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - July 2008 (228 KB)
The combination of rising inflation and slowing growth has paralysed central banks and left equity and bond markets in the worst of all worlds. Our view remains that the credit crunch is tightening policy for the central banks, a view supported by surveys of lending conditions and slower credit growth. |
| Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - June 2008 (181 KB)
The credit crunch seems to be yesterday’s news, central banks and markets are now grappling with the consequences of the surge in commodity prices. Policy makers have kept up the hawkish rhetoric and markets now fear a rise in global interest rates. |
| Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - March 2008 (339 KB)
Led by the US, global growth is forecast to slow in 2008. However, ongoing strength in the Emerging markets limits the degree of weakness compared to previous periods when the US has been in recession. |
| Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - May 2008 (188 KB)
In 2001, a recession in the US meant a weak global economy, today it means a modest easing in the pace of global activity. The emergence of a new group of fast growing commodity intensive countries is beginning to alter the relationship between global growth and inflation. |
| Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - September 2008 (138 KB)
At the time of writing politicians in the US are still wrangling over the Troubled Asset Relief Plan (the TARP). The market has pinned its hopes on the TARP as the way out of the crisis and in our view it directly addresses the root of the problem. By ridding the banks of their toxic assets, interest rate spreads should narrow and monetary policy will become more effective. |
| Schroder Economic Viewpoint - December 2007 (105 KB)
The rise in headline inflation rates has increased investor concerns that central banks will be unable to focus on growth and ease policy further in coming months. This is a genuine risk and heightened inflation fears are typical of this late phase of the cycle. |
| Schroder Economic Viewpoint - February 2008 (130 KB)
One of the characteristics of a recession is a sudden drop off in activity, the point at which a slowdown turns into something more serious. |
| Schroder Economic Viewpoint - November 2007 (519 KB)
Recent indicators show that US growth remained firm in the third quarter with the economy expanding by 4% in real terms. |
| Schroder Economic Viewpoint - October 2007 (550 KB)
We remain relatively positive on the world economy but caution that the full impact of the credit crunch has yet to be felt. |