30-year asset class returns forecast: 2016 update

Schroders Economics Group produces 30-year return forecasts, on an annual basis, for a range of asset classes. Our update for 2016 is now available.


Craig Botham

Craig Botham

Emerging Markets Economist

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In this report we outline the methodology used, which is based on a series of building blocks and estimates of risk premia, and surmise the key conclusions from our analysis.

In summary:

  • Cash returns likely to be negative in the near term, owing to the deleveraging process
  • Credit returns are estimated as the excess over sovereigns
  • Equity return forecasts show disparity between emerging markets and developed markets, particularly Japan
  • Strongest returns found in equities, particularly emerging markets and UK small cap, while cash returns are atrocious.

Our full in-depth analysis can be found as a PDF at the link below.

Read the full report

30-year asset class returns - March 2016 update 6 pages | 269 kb



Craig Botham

Craig Botham

Emerging Markets Economist