TalkingEconomics: Emerging markets run the reform marathon

Reforms can help drive idiosyncratic equity performance in emerging markets, but the process is a marathon, not a sprint. We look at where four different countries find themselves in the race.

5 May 2016

Schroders Economics Team

Indonesia, the next India?

Just as the election of Narendra Modi prompted reform hopes in India, the election of Joko Widodo (“Jokowi”) generated optimism of a turnaround in Indonesian policy.

While there have been disappointments in both countries since their respective elections, we believe the reform-driven gains seen in Indonesia’s stockmarket have greater fundamental support than in India.

In the former, we expect the government to largely deliver on its infrastructure plan where, as in India, there has been a big push to boost investment through reform efforts aimed at encouraging private sector involvement.

Meanwhile, India’s reform story continues to struggle. May’s local elections could shift the balance of power somewhat in the Indian Upper House, and this is the next signal for us to watch.

Absent a favourable result for the ruling party, we would be sorely tempted to write off the prospect of further substantial reforms under Modi.

We should still see incremental gains, and the recapitalisation of the banking sector will prove helpful to cyclical growth, but reform failure could prove damaging to performance in a still crowded equity market.

South Africa, the next Brazil?

Lagging behind Indonesia and India on the reform path are Brazil and South Africa, both currently distracted from economic reform by political turmoil.

In Brazil, the removal of Dilma Rousseff as president looks increasingly likely while the impeachment or resignation of South African president, Jacob Zuma, looks far less probable.

The reform outlook is therefore dimmer in South Africa compared to Brazil, where a new government would likely enact some reform, even if only just sufficient to address the country’s current fiscal problems.

The good news for South Africa is that, unlike Brazil, policy has been reasonably sensible:

  • Currency weakness was permitted in response to external shocks
  • Monetary policy has been tight
  • Fiscal policy has also become tighter

The economy is also outperforming that of Brazil. However, in our view, South Africa is quite likely to follow Brazil’s earlier footsteps in losing its investment grade rating particularly if Zuma clings to power and policymakers do not begin to implement some of their promised reforms.

Important Information: This communication is marketing material. The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author(s) on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds. This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in this document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of an investment can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. All investments involve risks including the risk of possible loss of principal. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroders does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Some information quoted was obtained from external sources we consider to be reliable. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact obtained from third parties, and this data may change with market conditions. This does not exclude any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under any regulatory system. Regions/ sectors shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy/sell. The opinions in this material include some forecasted views. We believe we are basing our expectations and beliefs on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of what we currently know. However, there is no guarantee than any forecasts or opinions will be realised. These views and opinions may change.  To the extent that you are in North America, this content is issued by Schroder Investment Management North America Inc., an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Schroders plc and SEC registered adviser providing asset management products and services to clients in the US and Canada. For all other users, this content is issued by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 31 Gresham Street, London, EC2V 7QA. Registered No. 1893220 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.