UK mid caps: the hunt for pricing power
Rosemary Banyard sets out her views on the market and prospects for companies in the FTSE 250 index.
We are cautious about UK equity valuations, which now look quite expensive, and as a result it is currently hard to find mid-cap companies that offer absolute value. We remain very selective about how we deploy our funds, as always vigilant with regards to the quality of company accounts.
Although we are not enthusiastic about the prices of stocks, they are undoubtedly cheap relative to government bonds, where yields are at extremely low levels. Such unattractive valuations of bonds might explain why equities have so far performed strongly since the beginning of 2015, but we also believe the bulls could be too sanguine about the economic outlook.
M&A activity has driven up valuations
Companies are finding it hard to organically grow earnings in this low-growth world, and so we have seen a slew of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity since the start of the year. The abundance of cheap credit has been a spur to this, as unconventional monetary policy from central banks drives down borrowing costs.
UK-quoted mid and small caps have recommended a series of bids from international trade buyers from the US, Japan and Europe. Such M&A has acted to further drive up market valuations, which in the case of mid caps are now back to levels experienced at the height of the last bull market.
Strong performance has come amid thin volumes
Mid caps have outpaced large caps since January, after the European Central Bank (ECB) announced it would embark on a full-blown quantitative easing drive. This programme of monetary easing has been accompanied by the yield on 10-year German Bunds falling to all-time lows, while gilt yields have tracked lower too.
Confronted with such low returns from fixed income, it’s unsurprising that some investors don’t know what else to buy besides equities. The absence of active buyers of equities is best underscored by the thin volumes which have accompanied the rise in markets since the start of the year.
Macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive
Despite these concerns, UK-focused companies may draw real support from an improving employment picture. The Office for National Statistics reported last month (17 April) that average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, had risen 1.8% in the three months to February compared to the same period in 2014. This was accompanied by a fall in the unemployment rate to 5.6% in the period, the lowest level since July 2008.
Real wages in the UK have been given a further boost from the positive effect of moderating inflation, as lower oil prices have fed through to the fuel pump. Supermarket food prices and clothes prices have fallen too, albeit the latter may be the result of temporary weather-related factors. Meanwhile, small and mid-cap companies with overseas earnings could well benefit from the relative weakness in sterling against a resurgent dollar. Although those companies exporting to the eurozone could be impacted by the strength of the pound against a very weak euro in response to the ECB’s actions.
As the market has recovered we have seen quite a lot of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the small and mid-cap space, and these new companies have on the whole performed well. We have not participated in many, however, and remain somewhat wary about companies brought to the market by private equity sellers, where there has been a burst of activity in recent months.
Fundamental research underpins our investments
While it might be difficult to find absolute value in the current environment, it is not impossible, and towards that goal we continue to employ our bottom-up driven investment process*.
Fundamental research forms the basis of each investment decision as we look for companies with strong management teams and a proven track-record, good future prospects and a strong business franchise within their markets.
We believe that profits growth is most easily achieved through pricing power. In a world where the industrial expansion of China and India is a deflationary force on manufactured goods and increasingly on services, pricing power is a valuable attribute and our research emphasis is on identifying companies that have this.
*Investment process based on analysis of individual companies, whereby a company’s history,
management, and potential are considered more important than general market or sector
trends (as opposed to top-down investing).
Fund manager biography:
Rosemary Banyard joined Schroders in 1997 as a UK Equity Fund Manager. She has co-managed the Schroder UK Smaller Companies Fund with Andy Brough since 1998 and the Schroder UK Mid Cap Fund plc from 2003, for which she is now the lead manager. Her investment career commenced in 1979 when she joined James Capel as a graduate trainee before becoming a textiles research analyst. In 1995 she moved to John Govett where she managed the UK Small Companies Unit Trust. Rosemary holds a MBA from London Business School and a MA in Classics from Cambridge University. Rosemary is Co-Head of the Pan European Small and Mid Cap Team.
The views and opinions contained herein are those of Rosemary Banyard, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall.
This communication is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or any solicitation of any offer to buy securities or any other instrument described in this document.
The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. The securities, countries and regions shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be considered a recommendation to buy or sell.
Investments in smaller companies may be less liquid than in larger companies and price swings may therefore be greater than in larger company funds. The Company will invest solely in the companies of one country or region. This can carry more risk than investments spread over a number of countries or regions. As a result of 90% of fees being charged to capital, the distributable income of the Company may be higher but there is the potential that performance or capital value may be eroded. The Company may borrow money to invest in further investments, this is known as gearing. Gearing will increase returns if the value of the investments purchased increase in value by more than the cost of borrowing, or reduce returns if they fail to do so.
The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change. Forecasts and assumptions may be affected by external economic or other factors.
Issued in April 2015 by Schroder Unit Trusts Limited, 31 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7QA. Registered No: 4191730 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Important information: The views and opinions contained herein are those of the named author(s) on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds. This document is intended to be for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroder Investment Management Ltd (Schroders) does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The data has been sourced by Schroders and should be independently verified before further publication or use. No responsibility can be accepted for error of fact or opinion. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended from time to time) or any other regulatory system. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in the document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Any sectors, securities, regions or countries shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be considered a recommendation to buy or sell. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change. Forecasts and assumptions may be affected by external economic or other factors. Issued by Schroder Unit Trusts Limited, 31 Gresham Street, London, EC2V 7QA. Registered Number 4191730 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.