Forecast

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Blog

01MAY 2018

How to have no regrets as an investor

If investors want to avoid too many regrets then, rather than looking at the world in terms of black and white or right and wrong, they need to start thinking in terms of probabilities

2018

APRIL

13APR 2018

Blog

The Grand National is too complex to predict. Just like investing.

‘Buywise’ may be a long shot for the Grand National this year but, as a one-word recommendation for the value investment process, it is ahead of the field

12APR 2018

Blog

Facebook’s salutary lesson on being ‘priced for perfection’

Growth is a slippery and unpredictable beast – not that that stops people trying to forecast it – and when expected growth fails to materialise, the market can be unforgiving

06APR 2018

Blog

Economics: Could Nicolas Cage help save lives simply by retiring?

It may seem ridiculous to think so and yet a recent paper suggesting economists could predict recessions by analysing pregnancy rates is based on precisely the same misconception

MARCH

29MAR 2018

Blog

Gradually rising interest rates? Don’t be too sure

An analysis of the last 700 years of financial history suggests it would be dangerous for investors to be too confident they know how interest rates are going to behave over the coming years

JANUARY

23JAN 2018

Blog

‘Supermarket giants doomed’. No, just history repeating.

A few years ago, market watchers were convinced the supermarket giants were doomed at the hands of a new breed of discounters. As is often the case, however, the reality has proved rather more nuanced than that

16JAN 2018

Blog

Is 2018's rosy economic outlook really that rosy?

The economic outlook for 2018 may look rosy but the wider market already appears positioned for that – and, when this happens, things can often go very differently from how investors were hoping

11JAN 2018

Blog

Our 2018 investment anti-forecast – Forget forecasts

It is a continuing curiosity of investing that people can be so obsessed about trying to predict the future yet at the same time find it so difficult to think beyond the present