Schroders Quickview: Falling UK inflation to spur domestic demand
Schroders Research Analyst Charlotte Morrish sees falling inflation as a positive for UK domestic demand as consumers reap the rewards of falling energy costs.
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The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 0.0% in February, lower than expectations for +0.1%, which represents the lowest level of inflation on record.
The recent decline in inflation should be positive for domestic demand (consumer spending and business investment) and serve to prolong the UK’s business cycle.
If end demand remains positive, then falling prices should not feed through into wage negotiations; the current low rate of inflation is likely to be temporary.
In the short-term this means that the UK’s interest rate trajectory is more likely to be driven by labour market data than movements in the headline inflation rate.
Our expectations for continued growth in the UK economy and a (long-awaited) corresponding pickup in wage growth are unchanged.
Cheaper food and petrol fuelling inflation fall
The major cause for the fall in the headline rate has been well-documented.
The Office for National Statistics estimates that 0.9% of the decline relative to February 2014 (+1.7%) can be attributed to declining food and petrol prices.
Core CPI inflation (which excludes food and energy) was a more steady +1.2%.
Prices in a number of consumer services segments, such as restaurants & hotels and education, increased at similar rates to a year ago, suggesting that consumer demand in the UK remains stable.
The fall in energy prices over the last six months has been largely driven by an increase in global supply rather than a fall in global end demand.
Producer prices showed substantial declines in input prices (-13.5%) and more mild fall in output prices (-1.8%), which should serve to support company margins as well as the outlook for the labour market.
House price inflation remained robust at +8.4%.
Supply not demand falling
Taken together, we are inclined to agree with the Bank of England’s analysis in February’s Inflation Report that the fall in energy prices over the last six months has been largely driven by an increase in global supply rather than a fall in global end demand.
This supports our view that the decline in inflation is a net positive for domestic demand.