Economic Viewpoint
| Published Date | List Of Documents |
|---|---|
| 25/08/2010 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - August 2010 (331 KB)
The latest figures suggest that the US economy lost momentum around mid year and the Federal Reserve has downgraded its assessment of the outlook. With the economy now growing at close to stall speed it would not take much in the way of a shock to tip it into a double dip. |
| 23/07/2010 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - July 2010 (206 KB)
Growth is stepping down a gear as the boost from the inventory cycle fades creating fears that the world economy will tip into a double dip recession. Tighter fiscal policy adds to these concerns as the recovery will now be in the hands of the private sector. |
| 30/06/2010 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - June 2010 (184 KB)
Doubts about sovereign creditworthiness and the economic recovery have led to a horrid performance from equity markets in the second quarter. With government bonds in the US, Japan and Germany rallying, risk aversion has increased sharply. |
| 31/05/2010 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - May 2010 (319 KB)
As government budget deficits rise to the highest levels experienced during peacetime, markets have begun to question the sustainability of fiscal support. The Euro area has come under acute pressure prompting the European Union to announce a €750 billion rescue package. The European Central Bank (ECB) has also agreed to buy government bonds and increase liquidity to the banking sector. |
| 29/04/2010 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - April 2010 (320 KB)
Global economic activity continues to strengthen and surprise on the upside led by the US and emerging markets. The rebound in corporate profits, rally in financial markets and ongoing resilience in the emerging world have played a role, underpinned by record policy stimulus. |
| 31/03/2010 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - March 2010 (255 KB)
Government borrowing has soared in the wake of the financial crisis with a significant number of advanced economies heading for debt-GDP ratios above 100%. The IMF have described this as a daunting fiscal challenge as those high debt economies account for a high proportion of economic activity. |
| 28/02/2010 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - February 2010 (245 KB)
We have increased our forecasts for global GDP growth in 2010 a result of upgrades to the US and emerging markets. We are now more confident of a sustainable recovery as an improving corporate sector is expected to increase capital expenditure and employment. However, ongoing de-leveraging pressures will limit the strength of the upturn. |
| 31/01/2010 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - January 2010 (235 KB)
Recent developments in China’s economy are a reminder that strong economic growth is not necessarily good for a country’s stockmarket. The concern today is that China is overheating and running a risk of a sharp pick up in inflation. As a result the authorities have begun to tighten policy and markets recognise that a subsequent slowdown in liquidity growth will affect asset prices as well as the real economy. |
| 31/12/2009 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - December 2009 (317 KB)
Markets experienced a reversal of fortune in 2009, rebounding after the catastrophe of 2008. Such turnarounds do not happen often, just six times since 1871 (see chart). The latest was set up by a bout of extreme pessimism in March, the point at which bonds and equities had discounted depression. |
| 30/11/2009 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - November 2009 (248 KB)
We have revised up our forecasts for global growth and now expect the world economy to expand by 2.7% in 2010, around 0.5% higher than previously forecast. The inflation forecast is little changed for the OECD countries, but has been raised for the emerging markets where we see a risk of overheating. |
| 31/10/2009 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - October 2009 (196 KB)
The US dollar has closely tracked swings in risk appetite with the rate against the euro moving in lock step with the S&P 500 over the past two years. Amongst the major currencies, strength and weakness is closely related to the severity of the credit crisis in each economy, with sterling being one of the worst hit. |
| 30/09/2009 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - September 2009 (225 KB)
Over the past three months, the rally in equity markets has been accompanied by falling government bond yields. This marks a contrast with the first phase of the recovery in markets where both equity prices and bond yields rose. The more recent performance of bond yields reflects the commitment of central banks to keeping interest rates low following a number of policy meetings and the G20 gathering of finance ministers. The authorities have been clear: it is too early to end easy money. |
| 26/08/2009 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - August 2009 (210 KB)
Better than expected figures for the second quarter combined with evidence of a further improvement in the third have led us to upgrade our growth forecasts for the world economy. We now expect the world economy to contract by 2% this year before growing at just over 2% in 2010. These figures are about one percentage point stronger than expected three months ago. |
| 23/07/2009 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - July 2009 (233 KB)
The ability of government bond markets to absorb significant and rising amounts of paper has had little apparent impact on yields, which remain low by historical standards. We see this as a reflection of the downturn in demand for private capital and the risk of a further deterioration in the economic outlook. |
| 30/06/2009 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - June 2009 (249 KB)
Increased expectations of recovery, evidence of financial stability and an improvement in liquidity have driven markets over the past quarter. Led by the emerging markets, equities have trounced government bonds and commodity prices have risen as investors have bought into the reflation trade. |
| 28/05/2009 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - May 2009 (204 KB)
The first phase of the recession where activity falls off a cliff is nearing a close, as firms adjust to lower levels of output. This is apparent in business surveys, which indicate a turn in the inventory cycle and the continuing thaw in the financial markets |
| 29/04/2009 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - April 2009 (148 KB)
Risk assets have rallied on evidence that the green shoots of recovery have begun to emerge. Business surveys and Purchasing Managers indices around the world have begun to rise and there are signs that monetary policy is achieving some traction in terms of reducing credit costs. |
| 24/03/2009 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - March 2009 (110 KB)
The forecast for global growth has been cut significantly with projections for both the OECD and emerging markets lowered for 2009. The downturn will generate tremendous slack in the world economy sending prices lower and the US into deflation. For 2010, we have built a modest recovery into our baseline forecast to reflect the impact of fiscal and monetary policy easing and on this outlook deflation should not become entrenched. |
| 27/02/2009 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - February 2009 (120 KB)
Economic data remains poor with employment and house prices continuing to fall sharply. Economies exposed to international trade have been particularly hard hit with Germany and Japan the worst performing of the G7. Data in the Eurozone has been particularly weak. Inventories have built up in the US, signalling a period of further falls in production as companies meet demand from their stocks of unsold goods. |
| 29/01/2009 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - January 2009 (149 KB)
There has been little respite from the global downturn this month with business surveys and output falling around the world. Export growth has tumbled and China has experienced its weakest quarter of growth for seven years. The UK has been no exception and entered its first recession since 1990 in the second half of last year. |
| 23/12/2008 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - December 2008 (120 KB)
Global activity is falling with the latest surveys pointing to a sharp contraction in activity. We expect OECD output to contract by 1% next year – the worst performance for more than fifty years. Overall, global growth should be positive, courtesy of a contribution from the emerging markets. |
| 27/11/2008 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - November 2008 (114 KB)
After an absence of five years the d-word has returned. The prospect of a global recession combined with falls in commodity prices threatens to push the world economy into deflation next year. |
| 30/10/2008 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - October 2008 (119 KB)
The intensification of the credit crunch has led us to cut our growth forecasts for 2009. We now expect the OECD economies to experience a contraction in output next year. Consumers are under pressure from the tightening of credit and falling asset prices while the latest surveys signal a fall in industrial output. |
| 26/09/2008 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - September 2008 (138 KB)
At the time of writing politicians in the US are still wrangling over the Troubled Asset Relief Plan (the TARP). The market has pinned its hopes on the TARP as the way out of the crisis and in our view it directly addresses the root of the problem. By ridding the banks of their toxic assets, interest rate spreads should narrow and monetary policy will become more effective. |
| 27/08/2008 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - August 2008 (147 KB)
There is increasing evidence that the US slowdown is spreading to the rest of the world with output in Europe and Japan falling in the second quarter. We would attribute this to the global impact of the commodity price shock combined with continuing effects from the credit crunch in Europe. |
| 28/07/2008 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - July 2008 (228 KB)
The combination of rising inflation and slowing growth has paralysed central banks and left equity and bond markets in the worst of all worlds. Our view remains that the credit crunch is tightening policy for the central banks, a view supported by surveys of lending conditions and slower credit growth. |
| 26/06/2008 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - June 2008 (181 KB)
The credit crunch seems to be yesterday’s news, central banks and markets are now grappling with the consequences of the surge in commodity prices. Policy makers have kept up the hawkish rhetoric and markets now fear a rise in global interest rates. |
| 29/05/2008 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - May 2008 (188 KB)
In 2001, a recession in the US meant a weak global economy, today it means a modest easing in the pace of global activity. The emergence of a new group of fast growing commodity intensive countries is beginning to alter the relationship between global growth and inflation. |
| 18/04/2008 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - April 2008 (148 KB)
Recent action by the Federal Reserve appears to have reduced the tail risk associated with an outright financial meltdown. However, stresses within the financial sector remain and the transmission mechanism from monetary policy to the real economy is impaired. |
| 18/03/2008 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - March 2008 (339 KB)
Led by the US, global growth is forecast to slow in 2008. However, ongoing strength in the Emerging markets limits the degree of weakness compared to previous periods when the US has been in recession. |
| 20/02/2008 | Schroder Economic Viewpoint - February 2008 (130 KB)
One of the characteristics of a recession is a sudden drop off in activity, the point at which a slowdown turns into something more serious. |
| 23/01/2008 | Economics and Strategy Viewpoint - January 2008 (117 KB)
The US economy took a significant turn for the worse at the end of last year with unemployment rising sharply and business surveys indicating a sharp down turn in activity. |
| 20/12/2007 | Schroder Economic Viewpoint - December 2007 (105 KB)
The rise in headline inflation rates has increased investor concerns that central banks will be unable to focus on growth and ease policy further in coming months. This is a genuine risk and heightened inflation fears are typical of this late phase of the cycle. |
| 22/11/2007 | Schroder Economic Viewpoint - November 2007 (519 KB)
Recent indicators show that US growth remained firm in the third quarter with the economy expanding by 4% in real terms. |
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