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Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

Coronavirus and the world economy: recent research from the economics team

We are now producing the Economic and Strategy Viewpoint on a quarterly basis, rather than monthly. In order to keep you and your clients up to date we will publish updates of our views throughout the month. Make sure you receive email alerts when these views are published by registering here and selecting "Economic Views".

Here is a collection of our most recent work.

Not surprisingly the focus has been on the impact of the coronavirus on economic activity and we have made significant revisions to our baseline forecast (here) and introduced a new risk scenario Coronavirus lingers (here).

The policy response has been significant and we examine what governments and central banks are doing to limit the damage in Europe (here and here) and Japan (here).

Meanwhile, financial markets are trying to price in the damage and we look at how China might provide a guide (here) and the likely impact on US profits (here).

The path of the virus will be critical and we consider how one country appears to be bucking the trend (here).  

Summary of research: March

Coronavirus to spark “severe” global recession

We’ve updated our forecasts to reflect the impact of coronavirus. The news is not good, with 2020 poised to be the worst year since the 1930s.

19/03/2020

V, W or L: what shape will the recovery take?

Although a rapid V-shaped recovery is our central forecast, if Covid-19 lingers there is a risk of a “double-dip” recession.

27/03/2020

Europe’s fiscal response to coronavirus: “Whatever it takes”

As the Covid-19 crisis intensifies in Europe, we look at what governments are doing to limit the economic damage.

27/03/2020

ECB and BoE provide further easing but deep recession looks inevitable

As the disruption to economic activity from the Covid-19 outbreak escalates, the European Central Bank and Bank of England have been forced to return with larger easing measures.

19/03/2020

The Chinese experience of Covid-19

Does China’s experience of Covid-19 provide a gauge of what to expect elsewhere?

24/03/2020

US profits and the coronavirus pandemic: what to expect?

We look at the impact Covid-19 might have on US profits this year, and the prospects of a rebound in 2021.

25/03/2020

Can Japan continue to buck the trend for coronavirus?

Japan has so far avoided the same rise in Covid-19 cases as many other countries. But if stronger containment measures are introduced – as we expect – the already vulnerable economy would be hurt.

25/03/2020

Japan heads for recession despite BoJ action

Coronavirus Daily Snapshot: The Bank of Japan has joined other central banks in trying to fight the impact of Covid-19. But investors are underwhelmed and Japan faces a likely recession.

16/03/2020

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