Momentaufnahme

Our multi-asset investment views - November 2020


Key

MAIN ASSET CLASSES

 
 

Equities

We expect the reduction in uncertainty following the US presidential election, the positive news on vaccines and the ongoing economic recovery to support equities.

 

Government bonds

We maintain our view that the upside is limited and government bond markets remain expensive, despite the recent rise in yields.

 

Commodities

We have downgraded our view as we await better visibility on fiscal stimulus plans after the US presidential election.

 

Credit

We retain a positive view overall, with a preference for higher quality, “investment grade” corporate bonds over lower quality non-investment grade (“high yield”).

Equities

 
 
 

US

We continue to favour the quality and growth characteristics of the US market. The Biden/split congress election result suggests four more years of supportive liquidity from central banks and governments.

 
 

UK

Although a resurgence in Covid-19 cases, accompanying restrictions and Brexit risks remain, we have upgraded the UK as we believe these negatives have been priced in.

 
 

Europe

Despite some uncertainty on fiscal coordination, we have upgraded Europe due to the recent news on the efficacy of the Covid-19 vaccines.

 
 

Japan

Upgraded due to recent news on the efficacy of the Covid-19 vaccines combined with a normalising of activity and the ongoing economic recovery.

 

Pacific ex-Japan

Following the positive news on Covid-19 vaccines, we expect the economic recovery to continue, aided by fiscal and monetary policy.

 

Emerging markets

We continue to favour EM, buoyed by the strength of the recovery in China, and some alleviation of the trade war risks from Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election.

 

Government bonds

 
 
 

US

Following the recent rise in yields, US government bonds (Treasuries) are beginning to look interesting again as they may offer protection if growth disappoints.

 

UK

We maintain our view that there is less value in UK government bonds (gilts) given their poor relative returns compared to other developed markets.

 

Germany

Germany remains a very expensive market and a strong euro creates an additional headwind for the European Central Bank (ECB). 

 

Japan

With inflation likely to remain significantly lower than target, the Bank of Japan will need to keep its unconventional policies in place.

 
 

US inflation linked bonds

Following the recent rise in yields, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) now appear less favourable compared to Treasuries.

 

Emerging markets local currency bonds

We still see medium-term opportunities which are likely to provide higher yields.

 

Investment grade credit

 
 

US

Fundamentals are weak, but the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to remain supportive by extending its purchasing scheme.

 

Europe

Although fundamentals are weak, demand is robust due to the ECB increasing its purchases back to levels seen in March and June 2020.

 

Emerging markets USD

We continue to favour high quality corporate bonds. The level of real interest rates is likely to remain the key driver of this market.

 

High yield bonds (non-investment grade)

 
 

US

US high yield (HY) is less attractive than European HY.

 

Europe

We retain our preference for European HY as we expect support from the ECB in the form of the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) to continue into 2021.

 

Commodities

 
 
 

Energy

Given extreme market pessimism until the vaccine news, we believe there is now a valuation-driven opportunity, particularly in US energy.

 

Gold

Recent optimism on the vaccine combined with signs of an economic recovery and a normalising of activity leads us to maintain our neutral view on gold.

 

Industrial metals

Although industrial metals could benefit from a recovery, China is tightening liquidity. Therefore, we are reluctant to upgrade given the uncertainty on fiscal stimulus.

 

Agriculture

Although we prefer to stay on the side lines for the time being, the sector is resilient due to demand from Chinese trade commitments.

 

Currencies

 
 

US $

We maintain a positive view on the US dollar as it offers defensive properties at a time when government bonds offer less protection against financial loss.

 

UK £

Although we remain neutral on sterling as we await the outcome of Brexit negotiations and the economic impact of Covid-19 lockdowns, there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon.

 

EU €

We maintain a neutral view on the euro as growth has deteriorated due to lockdowns. However, we expect that aggressive central bank support will help next month.

 
 

JPY ¥

With the US election out of the way and positive news on vaccine efficacy, the outlook for the yen has weakened and for this reason we have downgraded our view.

 

Swiss franc ₣

We expect the Swiss franc to remain range-bound due to the better environment for risky assets compared with the European Covid-19 lockdown despair.

 

Source: Schroders, November 2020. The views for equities, government bonds and commodities are based on return relative to cash in local currency. The views for corporate bonds and high yield are based on credit spreads (i.e. duration-hedged). The views for currencies are relative to the US dollar, apart from the US dollar which is relative to a trade-weighted basket.

Please note any past performance mentioned is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The sectors, securities, regions and countries shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be considered a recommendation to buy or sell.

Wichtige Informationen: Bei dieser Mitteilung handelt es sich um Marketingmaterial. Die Einschätzungen und Meinungen in diesem Dokument geben die Auffassung des Autors bzw. der Autoren auf dieser Seite wieder und stimmen nicht zwangsläufig mit Ansichten überein, die in anderen Veröffentlichungen, Strategien oder Fonds von Schroders zum Ausdruck kommen. Dieses Material dient ausschliesslich zu Informationszwecken und ist in keiner Hinsicht als Werbematerial gedacht. Das Dokument stellt weder ein Angebot noch eine Aufforderung zum Kauf oder Verkauf eines Finanzinstruments dar. Es ist weder als Beratung in buchhalterischen, rechtlichen oder steuerlichen Fragen noch als Anlageempfehlung gedacht und sollte nicht für diese Zwecke genutzt werden. Die Ansichten und Informationen in diesem Dokument sollten nicht als Grundlage für einzelne Anlage- und/oder strategische Entscheidungen dienen. Die Wertentwicklung in der Vergangenheit ist kein verlässlicher Indikator für künftige Ergebnisse. Der Wert einer Anlage kann sowohl steigen als auch fallen und ist nicht garantiert. Alle Anlagen sind mit Risiken verbunden. Dazu gehört unter anderem der mögliche Verlust des investierten Kapitals. Die hierin aufgeführten Informationen gelten als zuverlässig. Schroders garantiert jedoch nicht deren Vollständigkeit oder Richtigkeit. Einige der hierin enthaltenen Informationen stammen aus externen Quellen, die von uns als zuverlässig erachtet werden. Für Fehler oder Meinungen Dritter wird keine Verantwortung übernommen. Darüber hinaus können sich diese Daten im Einklang mit den Marktbedingungen ändern. Dies schliesst jedoch keine Verpflichtung oder Haftung aus, die Schroders gegenüber seinen Kunden gemäss etwaig geltender aufsichtsrechtlicher Vorschriften wahrnimmt. Die aufgeführten Regionen/Sektoren dienen nur zur Veranschaulichung und stellen keine Empfehlung zum Kauf oder Verkauf dar. Die im vorliegenden Dokument geäusserten Meinungen enthalten einige Prognosen. Unseres Erachtens stützen sich unsere Erwartungen und Überzeugungen auf plausible Annahmen, die unserem derzeitigen Wissensstand entsprechen. Es gibt jedoch keine Garantie, dass sich etwaige Prognosen oder Meinungen als richtig erweisen. Diese Einschätzungen oder Meinungen können sich ändern.  Herausgeber dieses Dokuments: Schroder Investment Management Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU, Grossbritannien. Registriert in England unter der Nr. 1893220. Zugelassen und beaufsichtigt durch die Financial Conduct Authority.

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Marc Brodard

Marc Brodard

Head Private Clients - Switzerland
Telephone:
marc.brodard@schroders.com