Janet Mui: weekly economic update 21 June

This week’s central bank activity has both the Fed and the ECB sounding distinctly dovish, but the Bank of England appears unmoved


  • The Fed gives strong hints of a rate cut as early as July
  • Nearly half of FOMC members see two rate cuts by the year end
  • In Sintra, Portugal, the ECB’s message is that policy stimulus will be up for discussion in July, potentially opening the way for rate cuts in September
  • But in the UK, the Bank of England kept its slightly hawkish bias, due to wage pressures and the economy running at full employment. We continue to expect UK rates to remain on hold as long as Brexit is unresolved


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