World cup emotions reinforce using a value investing system

Whether it relates to England’s chances in a World Cup or a company in the stockmarket, human emotion really does not change – but at least, in the latter context, value investing is designed to take advantage



Nick Kirrage
Co-head Global Value Team

Two minutes before Harry Kane’s last-gasp winner against unfancied Tunisia in England’s first game of the 2018 World Cup, the mood in the London Bridge sports bar was one of sombre resignation – so it was going to be one of those World Cups.

Two seconds after the final whistle, the bar resounded to the opening strain of England's famous World Cup 1998 theme song ‘Three Lions’ – “It’s coming home, it’s coming home …”

No, it was going to be one of those World Cups.

Like the controls of a shower in a two-star hotel, it does not take much to switch the emotions surrounding the national football team from one extreme of temperature to the other – “It’s scalding hot, it’s freezing cold …” as it were.

And of course ‘Three Lions’ does tap into that cycle of emotion – wearily familiar to England football fans – that runs from artificially low expectations to unrealistically high ones. And back again …

World Cup 2010 headlines

England group stages announcedEngland go out of the cup


 Source: The Sun

Whenever England do qualify for a World Cup, this happens on a fairly predictable four-year cycle – two years, if you throw in the Euros. And a similar – if perhaps less rigidly timetabled – phenomenon can be seen in the stockmarket where investors can go through a range of emotions.


Football: "It’s coming home, it’s coming home, it’s coming …"

Investing: "This is the best company I have ever bought – great numbers, great barriers to entry, just great."



Football: "Everyone seems to know the score, they've seen it all before … They just know, they’re so sure …"

Investing: "The shares are falling, you say? Then the market’s wrong – there is no way I’m selling out of this."



Football: "That England’s gonna, throw it away, gonna blow it away but I know they can play."

Investing: "Hang on, now I’m getting nervous. Maybe I have got it wrong. Oh no – I just doubled my position."



Football: "So many jokes, so many sneers …"

Investing: "People will be asking me why I’m now the biggest holder of this stock. I’ve made a terrible mistake"



Football: "But all those 'oh so nears …"

Investing: "But it looked so great. What can I have been thinking? Time to sell. Maybe no-one will notice."



Football: "Wear you down, through the years ..."

Investing: "The shares are rising, you say? Then the market’s wrong – there is no way I’m buying back in."



Football: "But I still see that tackle by Moore … and when Lineker scored …"

Investing: "Actually, management do seem to have fixed things. Maybe it’s time I got back on the horse."



Football: "Bobby belting the ball … and Nobby dancing ..."

Investing: "What a great move. I’ll make all my losses back. This is the best company I have ever bought …"



"I know that was then … but it could be again …

It’s coming home, it’s coming home, it’s coming …"


The world is continuously changing but one thing does remain constant – human beings. Markets are cheap when we are fearful; and they are expensive when we are greedy.

However this World Cup pans out, in the world of investing it turns out we are systematically exploitable.

And value investing is the system.

Visit our website to find out more: Schroder Global Recovery Fund

Important information

Important Information:

This document is issued by Schroder Investment Management Australia Limited (ABN 22 000 443 274, AFSL 226473) (Schroders). It is intended solely for wholesale clients (as defined under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth)) and is not suitable for distribution to retail clients. This document does not contain and should not be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendations. This document does not take into consideration any recipient’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making any decision relating to a Schroders fund, you should obtain and read a copy of the product disclosure statement available at or other relevant disclosure document for that fund and consider the appropriateness of the fund to your objectives, financial situation and needs. You should also refer to the target market determination for the fund at All investments carry risk, and the repayment of capital and performance in any of the funds named in this document are not guaranteed by Schroders or any company in the Schroders Group. The material contained in this document is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice. Schroders does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this document. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Schroders, every company in the Schroders plc group, and their respective directors, officers, employees, consultants and agents exclude all liability (however arising) for any direct or indirect loss or damage that may be suffered by the recipient or any other person in connection with this document. Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this document reflect the opinions of the authors as at the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. “Forward-looking” information, such as forecasts or projections, are not guarantees of any future performance and there is no assurance that any forecast or projection will be realised. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. All references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are made for illustrative purposes only and are not to be construed as recommendations to buy, sell or hold. Telephone calls and other electronic communications with Schroders representatives may be recorded.


Nick Kirrage
Co-head Global Value Team
Follow us

This website is owned and operated by Schroder Investment Management Australia Limited (ABN 22 000 443 274, AFSL 226473).  Your access to this website is subject to the Terms of Use found by clicking the ‘Important Information’ link below.  By using this website, you agree to be subject to these Terms of Use.