Highlight Monthly Commentary - November 2021

08/12/2021
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Macroeconomics

Indonesia 3Q21 GDP was recorded   at +3.5%YoY vs +7.1% in 2Q21. Among GDP component, private  consumption decelerated the most at +1.03% in 3Q21 vs +5.96% in 2Q21 due to mobility restriction. BI kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.5% for 9 consecutive months. October trade balance recorded another surplus record of USD5.7bn  (vs USD4.4bn in September).

Equity

JCI declined by 0.9%MoM with Rp3tn/1tn outflow in all/regular market. The index reached its all times high at 6,754 during the month on a series of positive news flow from improving macro data to manageable covid condition in the country. However, the index reversed its course at the end of the month on profit taking as well as concern on new Covid19 variant with numerous mutations. The best performing sector was IDXTrans (+23.3%) lead by shipping company that enjoyed a surging demand as economy resumed.

Majority of the global markets were corrected as investors risked off upon the discovery of new covid19 variant. The WHO labelled  Omicron as variant of concern. Many countries have put a travel restriction causing the oil price and travel & leisure stocks plummeting. Rising inflation was another concern for Euro Zone that was currently seeing an increase in covid cases. Emerging markets in Asia was also corrected due global growth concern and some of the tech giants slashed the revenue guidance. 

Fixed Income

Indonesia 10 years government bond yield inched up by 4bps to 6.1% compared to the previous month.  In comparison, the US 10-year treasury note declined by 11bps to 1.45%.  Investors reduced their position in riskier assets and flocked back to safe haven US treasury due to concern of the new virus variant. As of 29 November,  foreign posted a net outflow of Rp27.8tn MTD and outflow of Rp52.4tn YTD.  Foreign ownership accounted around 20.6% of total outstanding. Indonesia 10 years USD global bond yield at 2.3%.  IDR depreciated by 1% MoM vs USD to 14,314 .

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This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in this document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of an investment can goes down as well as up and is not guaranteed. All investments involve risks including the risk of possible loss of principal. Information herein is believed to be reliable, but Schroders does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Some information quoted was obtained from external sources we consider to be reliable. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact obtained from third parties, and this data may change with market conditions. This does not exclude any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under any regulatory system. Regions/ sectors shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy/sell. The opinions in this material include some forecasted views. We believe we are basing our expectations and beliefs on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of what we currently know. However, there is no guarantee than any forecasts or opinions will be realised. These views and opinions may change.  PT Schroder Investment Management Indonesia, 30th Floor IDX Building Tower 1, Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav 52-53, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia. PT Schroder Investment Management Indonesia is authorised as Investment Manager and supervised by Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).

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DISCLAIMER

INVESTMENT IN MUTUAL FUND INVOLVES RISK. PRIOR TO DECIDING TO INVEST, PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE FUND PROSPECTUS. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE / INDICATE FUTURE PERFORMANCE.

The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author(s) on this page and are not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders’ communications, strategies or products. This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as promotional material in any respector offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. This material is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations [and also may not be circulated, published, reproduced or distributed to any other person without our prior written consent]. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in this material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of an investment can goes down as well as up and is not guaranteed. All investments involve risks including the risk of possible loss of principal. Some information quoted herein was obtained from external sources we consider to be reliable. Information herein is believed to be reliable, but Schroders does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. No responsibility both directly and indirectly can be accepted for errors of fact obtained from third parties or negligence of or loss resulting from the use of this material. The data disclosed in this material may change according to market conditions. If any regions/sectors are shown in this material, such data is for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy/sell. We believe we are basing our expectations and beliefs on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of what we currently know and include some forecasted views. However, there is no guarantee that any forecasts or opinions disclosed in this material will be realised. These views and opinions herein are our current views and may change without notice. Nevertheless, this disclaimer does not exclude any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under the prevailing laws and regulations in the Republic of Indonesia. PT Schroder Investment Management Indonesia, 30th Floor Indonesia Stock Exchange Building Tower 1, Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia. PT Schroder Investment Management Indonesia as an Investment Manager is licensed and supervised by the Indonesian Financial Services Authority (OJK).

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