Caspar Rock: 2019 third quarter update
The past three months saw rising equities and strong performance from bonds and gold. Risks ahead include ongoing US-China trade disputes and Brexit outcomes. "We are prepared to be agile if circumstances change."
- The current economic picture is one of slowing growth, but we do not anticipate a recession.
- No assets can currently be described as "outstandingly cheap". We are closely watching for changes in earnings and margins.
- Sentiment is far from exuberant: investor behaviour is predominantly defensive, with cash levels higher than average.
- Risks ahead include ongoing US-China trade disputes and, in the UK, Brexit outcomes.
- Our positioning continues to be neutral on equities and underweight fixed interest. "We are prepared to be agile if circumstances change. This is a quarter in which we need to be on our toes."