Caspar Rock: Monday markets - the week ahead on 25 November
Thanksgiving on Thursday and Black Friday truncate the coming week and could add to volatility. We have US consumer confidence data to watch out for – and a speech from the Fed's Jerome Powell.
- With Thanksgiving in the US on Thursday and the crazed shopping frenzy “Black Friday” the day after, we might see lower volumes and slightly increased volatility.
- This week's data releases include the euro area CPI estimate on Friday. On Wednesday, we get a reading on US consumer confidence alongside the second estimate of US third-quarter GDP. The GDP number is expected to confirm the preliminary forecast of 1.9%. We also have a speech from Fed Chair Powell tonight.
- Last week the eurozone flash composite PMI signalled continued weak expansion in the region.
- We also saw the minutes from the last Fed meeting which noted that the risks to the economic and inflation outlook remain tilted to the downside.
- While risks surrounding trade negotiations and geopolitical issues such as Brexit have eased, policymakers still see them as elevated.
- In the UK, the Conservative Party consolidated and increased its lead in polls.
- Equities were slightly lower last week, and bonds rallied a little along with the dollar, all of which pointed to a week that consolidated the recent rally in risk markets.