UK growth downgrade highlights households’ challenge

The Office for National Statistics downwardly revised first quarter GDP growth in the UK amid figures that show pay growth lagging inflation.

05-24-2017
UK-High-Street-scene

Authors

Azad Zangana
Senior European Economist and Strategist
See all articles

A second official UK GDP print downgraded growth from 0.3% to 0.2% for the first quarter. This indicates that the slowdown at the start of the year was more pronounced than first thought.

Breakdown highlights ongoing pressure on households

Household consumption was one of the main contributing factors, with growth slowing from 0.7% to 0.3%. However, net trade was also a disappointment, with the balance reducing GDP by 1.4 percentage points. The volume of exports fell 1.6% from a very strong 4.6% in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, imports jumped by 2.7%, compared to a 1% fall previously.

There was some good news in the figures. Business investment was higher than expected, while government spending also picked up by more than expected. However, it is worth mentioning that had inventories not picked up through the quarter, the economy would have stalled.

Inflation continues to outpace wage growth

Overall, a weak set of figures, highlighting the challenge that households are facing: weak pay growth that is not keeping up with inflation. What makes matters worse is that inflation is still rising, and this period of weakness could persist for some time. 

The views and opinions contained herein are those of Schroders’ investment teams and/or Economics Group, and do not necessarily represent Schroder Investment Management North America Inc.’s house views. These views are subject to change. This information is intended to be for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect.

Authors

Azad Zangana
Senior European Economist and Strategist
See all articles

Topics

UK
Azad Zangana
Inflation
Growth
Central banks
Contact Schroders

Please consider a fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. The Schroder mutual funds (the “Funds”) are distributed by The Hartford Funds, a member of FINRA. To obtain product risk and other information on any Schroders Fund, please click the following link. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. To obtain any further information call your financial advisor or call The Hartford Funds at 1-800-456-7526 for Individual Investors.  The Hartford Funds is not an affiliate of Schroders plc.

Schroder Investment Management North America Inc. (“SIMNA”) is an SEC registered investment adviser, CRD Number 105820, providing asset management products and services to clients in the US and registered as a Portfolio Manager with the securities regulatory authorities in Canada.  Schroder Fund Advisors LLC (“SFA”) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of SIMNA Inc. and is registered as a limited purpose broker-dealer with FINRA and as an Exempt Market Dealer with the securities regulatory authorities in Canada.  SFA markets certain investment vehicles for which other Schroders entities are investment advisers.”

For illustrative purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to invest in the above-mentioned security/sector/country.

Schroders Capital is the private markets investment division of Schroders plc. Schroders Capital Management (US) Inc. (‘Schroders Capital US’) is registered as an investment adviser with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).It provides asset management products and services to clients in the United States and Canada.For more information, visit www.schroderscapital.com

SIMNA, SFA and Schroders Capital are wholly owned subsidiaries of Schroders plc.

© Copyright 2023 Schroder Investment Management North America Inc.