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Our multi-asset investment views - November 2023

We have upgraded our view on government bonds to positive as we believe interest rates have now peaked. Find out more about our views on a range of asset classes here.

11-30-2023
Multi-Asset Views - November 2023

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Multi-Asset Investments

🟢 Long / positive

🟡 Neutral

🔴 Short / negative



🔼 Up from last month

🔽 Down from last month



Main Asset Classes

🟢 Equities

We maintain our positive score, with the rationale remaining largely similar to last month. The persistence of lower bond volatility remains the most important factor for equities towards the end of the year.

🟢🔼 Government bonds

We have upgraded to positive as we believe that rates have peaked and continue to be positioned for a soft-landing.

🟢 Commodities

We maintain our positive score on commodities, particularly gold and energy. The asset class also offers a hedge against stagflation and geopolitical risks.

🟢Credit

We have retained our positive view on credit as it is well-placed to perform well given the outlook for nominal growth. Yields on credit are also attractive in the current market environment.



Equities

🟡🔽 US

We have downgraded to neutral as valuations are less attractive compared to other regions and as the so-called “Magnificent 7” mega cap technology stocks has largely driven market performance.

🟡UK

We maintain a neutral view due to pessimism surrounding the UK’s economic outlook.

🟡🔼Europe

We have upgraded from negative to neutral as we believe that the bleak economic picture has largely been priced in for European companies.
🟢 Japan

We maintain our positive outlook as Japan has attractive relative valuations and has the only central bank implementing loose monetary policy.

🟡 Global Emerging Markets1

Given that the manufacturing recovery will impact emerging markets in an uneven manner, we maintain our neutral view.

🟡 Asia ex-Japan, China

We maintain our neutral view on China due to the continuing weak outlook. China’s economy could suffer rather than benefit from increased AI demand.

🟡 EM Asia ex China

Although we maintain our neutral view, we do recognise the potential for Korea and Taiwan to outperform other emerging markets due to positive demand for semi-conductors.



Government bonds

🟢🔼 US

We have upgraded to positive as we believe that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has reached the end of its cycle of rate hikes and that the yield curve has become less inverted.
🟡 UK
We remain neutral as although inflation has cooled concerns remain about persistently strong wage growth and supply-side issues.

🟡 Germany

We maintain our neutral stance as inflation may prove to be persistent, reducing the European Central Bank’s scope to reduce rates.

🟡 Japan

Although divergence in Japanese monetary policy persists, inflationary dynamics have normalised. We maintain our neutral view as yields have stayed unattractive.

🟡 US inflation linked bonds

We remain neutral. Although inflation returning is a risk, we believe the hiking cycle may have allowed the Fed to bring inflation under control in the short-to-medium-term.

🟡 Emerging markets local currency bonds

Although we are positive on the US dollar and its potential to weigh on local emerging market bonds, we continue to hold a neutral view.

 

Investment grade credit

🟡 US

We continue to hold a neutral stance, whilst noting the weakening in fundamentals across the sector.

🟢 Europe

The positive carry (the profit achieved by investing in an asset using borrowed capital) offered by European bonds alongside the attractive yield is sufficient reason for us to keep our positive view. European valuations are also more attractive than their US counterparts.

🟡 Emerging markets USD

The light supply of bonds remains favourable, but continued expensive valuations mean we remain neutral.



High yield bonds (non-investment grade)

🟢🔼 US

The US economy has proved resilient and with the high level of absolute yields still very attractive, we have kept our positive score.

🟡 Europe

Although negative net issuance has provided a technical boost, European default rates lead us to remain neutral.

 

Commodities

🟢 Energy

We note the recent sell-off in the oil market but believe it has been overdone. We expect the next move to be a move back higher.

🟢Gold

The heightened levels of real interest rates, strong technical factors, and a lack of correlation from Chinese domestic demand have led us to upgrade gold to positive.

🟡 Industrial metals

We remain neutral as although the supply-side remains tight, there is no current indication as to where demand will come from
🟡Agriculture

We continue to hold a neutral view as potential risks from El Nino have been reduced by significant wheat exports from Russia.



Currencies

🟢 US $

We have maintained our positive view due to the diversification opportunities and hedging characteristics offered by the US dollar.

🟡 UK £

Concerns about the economic outlook and stagflation balanced with potential carry opportunities lead us to remain neutral.

🔴 EU €

We remain negative as concerns persist about European growth prospects and inflation especially when compared with the US.

🟡🔽 CNH ¥

We move to neutral as Chinese growth remains sluggish and doubts still remain over the real estate sector.

🟡 JPY ¥

We remain cautious as we do not expect the yen to outperform especially given the expectation that there may be further monetary policy discussions in light of the divergent policy.

🟡 Swiss franc ₣

Belief that the Swiss National Bank has completed its hiking cycle are offset by exposure to the euro, leaving us to remain neutral.

 

Source: Schroders, November 2023. The views for equities, government bonds and commodities are based on return relative to cash in local currency. The views for corporate bonds and high yield are based on credit spreads (i.e., duration-hedged). The views for currencies are relative to the US dollar, apart from the US dollar which is relative to a trade-weighted basket.


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