With Abbey Road back in the charts and the We Co rocket failing to launch, it’s a good time to remember that cashflows still drive value, even when value is hard to find.
As interest rates approach zero in much of the western world, the linear relationship which economists expect from their monetary intervention isn’t quite going to plan. Rather than igniting animal spirits and spurring spending, declining rates are creating insatiable demand and stratospheric prices for safe haven assets whilst doing nothing for the velocity of money and economic activity.
The renewed demand for REITs illustrates an acceptance that a long period of low growth will persist. Trying to find growth in that investment landscape means Australia’s tech darlings continue upwards – with valuations unseen since the tech bubble in 1999/2000.
While finding long-term sustainable profits remains the goal for any investor, ebullient valuations in Australian Equities persist. As an area of increasing focus, sustainability encompasses more than earnings and has many perspectives. Martin Conlon, Head of Australian Equities, discusses the need for a holistic and considered approach to sustainability, sharing his views on coal.
As low interest rates persist following the backing away from ‘normalisation’, the markets will focus on areas where long-term value is defined as longer than six months, and on businesses where a short-term earnings result won’t derail its potential.
Weak equity markets, declining property prices and unsettling political leadership globally have ensured a pessimistic atmosphere seeing investors again seek refuge in perceived safety. What are the arguments for a more optimistic stance and where do the best opportunities lie when we separate emotion from the facts?
Anything with a glimmer of hope for growth is now trading at premiums, but the reality is that we’re entering a low growth world and we may be here for some time. The impact of Commissioner Hayne’s royal commission is also spreading ripples.
Videos: Fund Manager Q&A’s
Any process is about replicability, and we try to look through the noise to see what the average return from a company ahead of its short-term returns. People panic over price changes, as can be seen in the relatively small decreases in property values, but buyers should be excited about the opportunity to buy more of a good company at a cheaper price.