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Economic Views

20JUN 2019

Fed holds fire, but July rate cut likely

Although the US Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged this month, the direction of travel is towards easier policy. Whether this will be enough to restore corporate confidence and spending may depend as much on the president as the Fed.

2019

JUNE

05JUN 2019

Economic Views

Trump targets Mexico, hits the Fed

We cannot be sure if Trump’s Mexican tariffs are just part of his bargaining strategy, but it may get him the Fed rate cut he wants.

05JUN 2019

Economic Views

Why we’ve lowered our expectations for emerging markets growth

Craig Botham explains growth downgrades for Brazil and India for this year, and why Russia sees a slight upgrade.

MAY

30MAY 2019

Economic Views

Brazil optimism fades as economy shrinks

Despite a poor start to the year for Brazil under new president Jair Bolsonaro, we think the picture will improve later in the year.

24MAY 2019

Economic Views

May resignation raises UK recession risk

Our economics experts share their views as Boris Johnson, who could easily take the UK out of the EU without a deal, is installed as favourite to become the UK’s next prime minister.

20MAY 2019

Economic Views

Japan springs growth surprise to allay recession fears

However, the Q1 GDP report masks very weak domestic demand.

16MAY 2019

Economic Views

Who will pay as US-China trade wars intensify?

The GDP impact of escalating trade tensions will be more severe on China but US consumers will pay as companies pass on higher costs.

15MAY 2019

Economic Views

Germany returns to growth

Domestic demand remains solid as the international outlook darkens.