Snapshot

23JAN 2019

Market Views: Fixed Income

The yield curve explained: is it predicting recession?

Since 1980 the yield curve has accurately predicted the last five US recessions. After nearly a decade of economic expansion, is it telling us that another one is on its way in 2019?

21JAN 2019

Economic Views

No immediate relief in sight for China’s slowing economy

Snapshot: Economic growth in China slowed to 6.4% in Q4 2018, and there is potential for further weakness in Q1.

18JAN 2019

Market Views: Multi-Asset

Our multi-asset views for January 2019

Snapshot: In our latest monthly update we highlight the need to strike a balance between improving valuations but worsening momentum indicators.

16JAN 2019

Economic Views

Brexit deal defeat triggers huge uncertainty: what next?

Possibility of no deal Brexit is as high as ever, risking a UK recession this year.

10JAN 2019

Market Views: Equities

Is this popular measure of stock market value giving a misleading “sell” signal?

Here's why scare stories about the current CAPE being a predictor of doom may prove to be wide of the mark.

03JAN 2019

Watch/Listen

Outlook 2019: 60 seconds on the global economy

We forecast global growth to slow in 2019 and the dollar looks set to weaken with US interest rates peaking mid-year.

2018

DECEMBER

20DEC 2018

Economic Views

Black Friday bargain hunters boost UK retail sales

UK retail sales beat expectations despite retailers issuing profit warnings, as consumers feel the effects of wage growth acceleration and falling inflation.

20DEC 2018

Economic Views

Fearful markets disappointed by Fed policy stance

Market participants had expected a more dovish statement given recent volatility in risk assets

18DEC 2018

Economic Views

What casino revenues can tell us about Chinese economic growth

Macau is the only place in China where casino gambling is legal. The spending data, therefore, offers an alternative view of moves in the Chinese economy.

11DEC 2018

Economic Views

How the Brexit delay has moved markets – and what it means for the economy

As Theresa May meets European leaders seeking a better Brexit deal, the UK economy heads for a period of heightened uncertainty and stagflation.