In focus

Coronavirus and the world economy: recent research from the economics team

We are now producing the Economic and Strategy Viewpoint on a quarterly basis, rather than monthly. In order to keep you and your clients up to date we will publish updates of our views throughout the month. Make sure you receive email alerts when these views are published by registering here and selecting "Economic Views".

Here is a collection of our most recent work.

Not surprisingly the focus has been on the impact of the coronavirus on economic activity and we have made significant revisions to our baseline forecast (here) and introduced a new risk scenario Coronavirus lingers (here).

The policy response has been significant and we examine what governments and central banks are doing to limit the damage in Europe (here and here) and Japan (here).

Meanwhile, financial markets are trying to price in the damage and we look at how China might provide a guide (here) and the likely impact on US profits (here).

The path of the virus will be critical and we consider how one country appears to be bucking the trend (here).  

Summary of research: March

Coronavirus to spark “severe” global recession

We’ve updated our forecasts to reflect the impact of coronavirus. The news is not good, with 2020 poised to be the worst year since the 1930s.


V, W or L: what shape will the recovery take?

Although a rapid V-shaped recovery is our central forecast, if Covid-19 lingers there is a risk of a “double-dip” recession.


Europe’s fiscal response to coronavirus: “Whatever it takes”

As the Covid-19 crisis intensifies in Europe, we look at what governments are doing to limit the economic damage.


ECB and BoE provide further easing but deep recession looks inevitable

As the disruption to economic activity from the Covid-19 outbreak escalates, the European Central Bank and Bank of England have been forced to return with larger easing measures.


The Chinese experience of Covid-19

Does China’s experience of Covid-19 provide a gauge of what to expect elsewhere?


US profits and the coronavirus pandemic: what to expect?

We look at the impact Covid-19 might have on US profits this year, and the prospects of a rebound in 2021.


Can Japan continue to buck the trend for coronavirus?

Japan has so far avoided the same rise in Covid-19 cases as many other countries. But if stronger containment measures are introduced – as we expect – the already vulnerable economy would be hurt.


Japan heads for recession despite BoJ action

Coronavirus Daily Snapshot: The Bank of Japan has joined other central banks in trying to fight the impact of Covid-19. But investors are underwhelmed and Japan faces a likely recession.


To receive economics content from Schroders Talking Point via email, please register here and select "Economic Views".

Important Information: This communication is marketing material. The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author(s) on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds. This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in this document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of an investment can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. All investments involve risks including the risk of possible loss of principal. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroders does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Some information quoted was obtained from external sources we consider to be reliable. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact obtained from third parties, and this data may change with market conditions. This does not exclude any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under any regulatory system. Regions/ sectors shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy/sell. The opinions in this material include some forecasted views. We believe we are basing our expectations and beliefs on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of what we currently know. However, there is no guarantee than any forecasts or opinions will be realised. These views and opinions may change.  The content is issued by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Registered No. 1893220 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Contact Schroders Wealth Management

To discuss your wealth management requirements, or to find out more about our services and how we can help you, please contact:

Marc Brodard

Marc Brodard

Head of Private Clients - Switzerland