Global Market Perspective Q4 2017

It was a quarter for emerging markets and commodities, as a combination of robust economic recovery and low inflation drove the outperformance in these assets. The trend was helped by a weak US dollar with investors responding to signs of strength in activity outside the US, particularly in the eurozone. 

Overall, risk assets performed well, although sovereign bonds had done well until the last month of the quarter when a more hawkish tilt from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) caused yields to rise.

Our asset allocation remains biased toward equities and emerging markets and we are generally short duration in our bond portfolios. This is largely based on a continuation of the “goldilocks” macro environment where growth is healthy, but not too strong to trigger inflation. Interest rates are likely to rise further in the US but we believe that the Fed will proceed cautiously and not reach the levels projected in its famous dot-plot of rate forecasts.

On a more cautious note, we do see the liquidity environment shifting significantly in 2018 as the Fed reduces its balance sheet and the European Central Bank (ECB) starts to taper its quantitative easing programme.

Although the Bank of Japan will continue with an ultra-loose monetary stance, we question whether this can be seen as a replacement for Fed or ECB asset purchases (see strategy section, “From QE to QT”). Looking longer term, we include our most recent forecasts for 7-year returns, which act as a timely reminder of the dangers of cash as anything more than a tactical asset. 

The full Global Market Perspective is available below.

Read the full report

Global-market-perspective-q42017 37 pages | 1,009 kb


Important Information: This communication is marketing material. The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author(s) on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds. This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in this document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of an investment can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. All investments involve risks including the risk of possible loss of principal. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroders does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Some information quoted was obtained from external sources we consider to be reliable. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact obtained from third parties, and this data may change with market conditions. This does not exclude any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under any regulatory system. Regions/ sectors shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy/sell. The opinions in this material include some forecasted views. We believe we are basing our expectations and beliefs on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of what we currently know. However, there is no guarantee than any forecasts or opinions will be realised. These views and opinions may change.  The content is issued by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Registered No. 1893220 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Contact Schroders Wealth Management

To discuss your wealth management requirements, or to find out more about our services and how we can help you, please contact:

Marc Brodard

Marc Brodard

Head of Private Clients - Switzerland