Investment themes in China A-shares as the crisis fades
Investment themes in China A-shares as the crisis fades
So far this year, China’s A-share market has been relatively resilient, holding up better through the Covid-19 crisis than other global and regional markets.
Why has the A-share market been so resilient so far this year?
Helped by the swift and effective response from the government, including the aggressive use of quarantines, China has been able to contain the Covid-19 outbreak relatively quickly.
With the exception of certain industries such as tourism, life in many parts of China returned to normal in mid-to-late February, with a lot of companies resuming work. In March, the vast majority of manufacturing plants were back online.
We believe the early and successful containment of the outbreak is one of the reasons why the A-share market has outperformed its peers. We also believe that many investors have been impressed by China’s top-down systems and their effectiveness. The successful demonstration of China’s effective crisis management response appears to have bolstered investors’ confidence in the China A-share market.
How is the economy holding up and is the government providing stimulus?
The virus outbreak will certainly affect the economy, and the outlook for Q2 remains challenging.
Although the domestic economy in China is back on its feet, most developed economies are likely to experience a dramatic contraction in economic growth in the second quarter. As a result, demand for manufactured goods from China is likely to drop off, which will affect China’s export segment. Bear in mind that exports account for around 20% of GDP.
Having said that, we can expect a boost in both fiscal and monetary policy support, as the Chinese government looks to mitigate some of the economic impact of Covid-19.
On the monetary front, the key measures so far include the lowering of interest rates and reserve ratio requirements for commercial banks, enabling them to provide greater lending capacity. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has cut the targeted required reserve ratio several times, hoping to direct more lending to the small-medium sized enterprises, which provide around 80% of the country’s jobs.
The PBoC has also pledged to take further support measures, as is required to meeting its policy targets.
On the fiscal side, the government has taken measures including the raising of the local government bond quota, which is typically used to fund infrastructure investment. There’s also been a temporary social security tax cut for businesses and an electricity price cut for certain companies. Local governments have also provided subsidy plans and support.
But the government has also committed to doing more. The politburo meeting held in late March sent a strong pro-growth signal, highlighting the need to raise fiscal deficits (i.e. increase spending), issue special government bonds, and further increase the issuance of local government bonds to drive fixed asset investment.
These measures are all very supportive to the sentiment of the A-share market in our view.
What investment themes do we see in China A-shares?
Looking ahead, we believe the key investment theme could be related to fixed asset investment in the country, given the supportive government policies.
Apart from the traditional fixed asset investment such as the construction of new railways and expressways, the government has more recently promoted the concept of “new infrastructure”. This includes 5G, the internet of things and artificial intelligence etc. Therefore, we believe 5G-related industries should be an area of focus.
On the consumer side, we continue to see the rise of domestic brands, becoming industry leaders in various sectors. We still think many of them show strong growth potential.
Last but not least, we believe the government will further increase its spending in the healthcare sector after this crisis.
What are the main market risks?
We are conscious of increasing political tension between the US and China. Whether this escalates further is yet to be seen, but it nonetheless bears close monitoring.
In addition, weak demand from overseas may feed into various market sectors. The technology space, particularly related to handsets, is an area we continue to assess. 2020 is set to be the year of proliferation of 5G.
Various supply chains have already been disrupted in different parts of the world. Whether the supply disruption of critical components could impact certain industries is also risks we need to consider.
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