Strategy & economics

2019 may well bring trends that surprise us on the upside

While global growth is slowing, the pessimism that gripped markets in 2018 may lift during the course of this year

24/01/2019

Janet Mui

Janet Mui

Global Economist

Looking ahead to 2019 the base case is that while the global economy will slow, a recession will be avoided. Many factors – including a strong labour market in the US, and fiscal boosts in China and elsewhere – will underpin earnings.

After the extreme negativity of markets in late 2018, we may see a recovery in share prices as several of investors’ worst fears fail to materialise.

At current levels we think markets are pricing in a recession scenario – which we see as extremely pessimistic and unfounded.

This article is issued by Schroders Wealth Management, which is part of the Schroder Group and a trading name of Schroder & Co. (Hong Kong) Limited, Level 33, Two Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong. Licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Nothing in this document should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.

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