Snapshot - Economics
Our multi-asset views for May 2019
We have downgraded equities this month and upgraded government bonds and gold. Here's why.
24 May 2019
We expect equities to deliver a small positive return over cash, given our view that a slowing macro environment may offer only modest support for equity markets.
We upgraded from neutral to positive this month off the back of positive momentum within the asset class.
We remain neutral, driven by a flat macroeconomic backdrop that shows few signs of growth, yet provides sufficient resilience at this stage to avoid a full recession.
The credit rally is set to continue following a strong start to the year.
We continue to favour US equities because of their high quality earnings.
Upgraded as both earnings and sales results have improved since the last quarter.
A stronger pound will provide a headwind for the UK market in the near term, specifically for large cap stocks.
We retain a neutral view, with a lack of confidence continuing to undermine stronger fundamentals.
A weak domestic environment in Australia significantly impacts the regional index and makes us neutral, despite our more positive view on Singapore and Hong Kong.
We continue to have a positive view on the region for its higher growth potential. China is currently benefitting from a series of domestically focused mini-stimuli gaining traction, but the spillover benefits to other countries remains questionable.
The upgrade is driven by the weakening cyclical outlook based on our models, and the recent escalation in trade wars between the US and China.
Gilts could provide an alternative for investors if there is a sharp fall in equities following their YTD rally.
We have upgraded our view to positive as German bonds are more attractive than US bonds.
We retain a neutral view as the Bank of Japan’s policy stance will continue to limit the yield of Japanese government bonds in the medium term.
US inflation linked
We remain positive on US break-evens, which offer value against rising wages/inflation.
Emerging markets local
Despite a stable outlook, we expect future returns to be driven only by short-dated bonds.
Investment grade (IG) corporate bonds
A less favourable earnings backdrop alongside elevated valuations lead us to maintain our negative outlook for US investment grade.
The European credit backdrop is healthy for now, with continued low interest rates and debt affordability for corporates looking set to improve even further.
Emerging markets USD
Accommodative policy in the US has removed the headwind to emerging market debt in the near term; however, unappealing valuations keep us neutral.
High yield bonds
Valuations drive our neutral score.
European high yield is trading at attractive levels compared to both historic valuations and fundamentals.
Remain neutral as energy markets appear balanced after the Saudi commitment to fill the gap created by Iranian sanctions.
Upgraded to positive based on potential growth disappointment.
Continue to trade broadly flat since being swept along in the January rally and there are no meaningful signs that this will change.
Downgraded to negative on the back of strong harvests in South America (coupled with existing high stock levels) and weakening prospects for the US-China deal.
The US dollar is expected to remain firm in the near term but to weaken later in the year as rates peak in the US.
Sterling has been boosted by the assumption that the economy enters a transition period rather than crashing out of the EU.
Remain neutral with the European Central Bank’s ultra-dovish stance, the uncertainty around Italian politics and the wait for a stabilisation in European growth all still weighing on the euro.
Japanese yen ¥
Dovish comments from the Bank of Japan keep our view neutral. We may look to upgrade the JPY view if we believe the risk of global recession has risen.
Swiss franc ₣
We maintain neutral, reflecting the balance between weak fundamentals and the currency's safe haven status.
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