Schroders Quickview: UK election surprise lifts investor uncertainty
A last minute surge of support for the Conservative party is now expected to lead to an outright majority for David Cameron's party - an astonishing result and totally unexpected by pollsters and betting markets.
It appears that the polarisation of the parties in the political spectrum has had two effects. The first is the decimation of the centrist Liberal Democrat party as voters moved to either Labour or the Conservatives. The second impact is a shift of floating centrist voters to the Conservatives, as the Labour Party was dragged further to the left (socialist) by the Scottish National Party (SNP), while Cameron held firm. The SNP has made spectacular gains in Scotland at the cost Labour and the LibDems, which will surely sharpen the divide with the rest of the UK and re-raise the Scottish Independence debate.
For investors, a clear victor removes a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the near-term over the ability of the government to govern and legislate, and as a result, sterling has a bounced by about 1.25% against the U.S. dollar; 2.5% against the euro, while FTSE 100 futures are trading about 1.7% higher, with strong gains in banking and utility stocks, which were under threat by Labour policy.
In time, the focus of investors will shift to the uncertainty that will come ahead of the proposed referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union in 2017, which could prompt some domestic and overseas investment to be delayed. Latest polls on the question suggest that those that want to remain in the union have a small lead, but that the majority are undecided.
Otherwise, in the near term the clarity delivered by the election will boost activity as households and businesses can take investment decisions with greater certainty over tax and regulation. Looking further out, the projected election results give the Conservatives the mandate to continue to implement its austerity plan, even if that plan has been eased in recent years. Government spending cuts are likely to continue, particularly in welfare payments where the government had sought to increase the relative gains for a return to work versus living on welfare.
With Cameron promising more money for the National Health Service and vowing not to increase taxes until the end of the decade, it makes it even more important for the government to find those efficiency savings and clamp down on tax evasion if fiscal targets are to be met. The fiscal deficit remains high at just over 5% of GDP, while the current account deficit is also close to record highs - highlighting a lack of domestic savings relative to domestic investment growth.
The views and opinions contained herein are those of Azad Zangana, Economist, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change. We accept no responsibility for any errors of fact or opinion and assume no obligation to provide you with any changes to our assumptions or forecasts. Forecasts and assumptions may be affected by external economic or other factors.
The sectors shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be considered a recommendation to buy or sell. This document is intended to be for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroder Investment Management Ltd (Schroders) does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact or opinion. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended from time to time) or any other regulatory system. Issued by Schroder Unit Trusts Limited, 31 Gresham Street, London, EC2V 7QA. Registered Number 4191730 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. For your security, communications may be taped or monitored.
- A new social contract - how are companies treating their employees as the Covid-19 crisis unfolds?
- How social inequalities have been brought into focus by Covid-19 and what it means for investors
- Our multi-asset investment views - May 2020
- Q&A: Why do markets rise even when the outlook is bleak?
- Economic and Strategy Viewpoint - June 2020
- What can the Covid-19 crisis teach us about tackling climate change?