10-year return forecasts: our estimates for returns from major asset classes

Long-term capital market assumptions are forward-looking estimates of total returns which are an important component for strategic asset allocation modelling and portfolio construction.

This note outlines our methodology for estimating 10-year capital market returns in local currency terms. Our approach was developed using a framework predominantly based on market measures allowing for a transparent, timely and systematic process updated twice a year.

To ensure our framework is coherent and consistent across asset classes and markets, we make use of certain reference assets (for example, US equities and government bond) as ‘anchors’ for estimating total returns for other asset classes.

The PDF below contains the full forecasts and information about the methodology used.