Virginie Maisonneuve's Global Insight February 2013
In the fifth edition of this monthly series, Schroders’ Virginie Maisonneuve sheds light on the most recent data out of China and what they mean for Chinese and global growth.
When the Chinese leadership transition was officially set in motion in November, while we felt comfortable that the economy had troughed in Q3, there were still fears among some investors that China’s economy was heading for a hard landing.
Now just weeks away from the official leadership change in March, economic data out of China have improved yet again.
On Friday 8th February, new figures showed that trade is strong with January exports up 25% from a year earlier while its trade surplus stands at $29 billion. Imports are also strengthening, up almost 29% in the same month, which translates into a boost in demand for the rest of the world. This is very important for exporters to China, such as Germany and many countries in Asia. Inflation is being kept in check at 2% and loan growth of 15% year-on-year is being driven by a rebound in consumer loans.
All of this supports the case that China’s growth is on the right track. This is important not only for investors looking for stock ideas listed in China but, more importantly, for the global economy and the source of growth China provides for many global companies world wide. This will therefore be supportive of a normalisation of the global economic environment in 2013.
Keeping expectations in check
After March, however, it is important to make sure that enthusiasm is kept in check because incoming premier Li Ke Jiang’s new long-term economic drivers may take some time to be implemented. The central bank is also keeping a close eye on inflation, and especially inflation expectations, given the seasonal uptick in pork and vegetable prices. This may limit the scope to stimulate the economy further should it be needed.
In all, though, the most recent developments have been encouraging and support our view that China will avoid a hard landing as it achieves a healthier and more sustainable level of growth.
For further information please contact the Schroders PR team:
Estelle Bibby, UK Institutional - Tel: +44 (0)20 7658 email@example.com
Charlotte Banks, UK Intermediary - Tel: +44 (0)20 7658 firstname.lastname@example.org
Caroline Smith, Broadcast – Tel: +44 (0)20 7658 3365 /email@example.com
Beth Saint, International - Tel: +44 (0)20 firstname.lastname@example.org
Kathryn Sutton, International - Tel: +44 (0)20 7658 email@example.com
The views and opinions contained herein are those of Virginie Maisonneuve, Head of Global and International Equities and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds.
For press and professional investors and advisors only. This document is not suitable for retail clients. This document is intended to be for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroder Investment Management Ltd (Schroders) does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact or opinion. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended from time to time) or any other regulatory system. Schroders has expressed its own views and opinions in this document and these may change. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in the document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions.
Issued by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 31 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7QA. Registration No 1893220 England.
Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
For your security, communications may be taped or monitored.