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10-year forecasts: what returns do we expect from major asset classes?


Riaz Fidahusein

Riaz Fidahusein

Head of Strategic Allocation Modelling, Multi-asset

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Keith Wade

Keith Wade

Chief Economist & Strategist

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Our latest forecasts suggest that cash returns are likely to remain poor. We forecast the UK and US to deliver the highest cash returns, though even here the projection is for just 0.7% per annum (p.a.).

Turning to fixed income, we see the best developed market returns in the US where we forecast government bonds to return 1.9% p.a. Higher returns can potentially be found in emerging markets, where we see local currency sovereign bonds returning 5.2%.

We see global equities returning 5.7% p.a. and emerging market equities 8.5%. The more generous potential return of emerging markets would typically be expected to compensate for greater volatility and sharper drawdowns.

Finally, looking at alternatives, private equity offers the highest returns on our forecasts. 

The PDF below contains the full forecasts and information about the methodology used.  

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10-year return forecasts (2019-29) 12 pages | 422 kb

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