Economic views

19OCT 2018


China’s growth surprise is just the start

With the impact of tariffs yet to show up in the data, and the looming threat of a property slowdown, the larger-than-expected slowdown in Chinese growth is a taste of things to come.

16OCT 2018


Infographic: A view of the global economy in October 2018

In this month's infographic we look at whether trade wars will end the current economic cycle and the issues facing Italy's highly indebted government.

12OCT 2018


Tough week for markets amid worries over rising interest rates

Yesterday’s softer US inflation reading has helped to settle stock markets but we still expect further rate increases and trade tensions to remain a concern.

11OCT 2018


US finds temporary inflation relief

The current strong economic activity and tight labour market are likely to result in elevated inflation in 2019

10OCT 2018


UK suffers World Cup hangover

The economy stalled in August after a strong July.

08OCT 2018

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

Global Market Perspective - Q4 2018

The intensifying trade wars, Italy's debt dynamics and the US yield curve are among the topics we discuss in our latest economic and asset allocation views.

05OCT 2018


Why India’s central bank may have made a mistake

We don’t find the reasoning behind the Indian central bank’s decision to leave rates on hold particularly persuasive.


28SEP 2018

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint - October 2018

The trade war between the US and China has escalated, and we expect the dispute to drag out. We assess the impact for the global economy.

28SEP 2018


Markets react negatively to Italy’s planned fiscal overshoot

Quickview: The planned fiscal expansion is far smaller than initially feared, suggesting an over-reaction in markets

27SEP 2018


US Fed lifts rates, with more in store

Quickview: We continue to expect further rate rises, taking the policy rate to 3% by mid-2019.