Snapshot - Economics

Why China’s recent slowdown may be more pronounced than investors realise

Schroders’ China Activity Indicator has slowed sharply, and we see little prospect of major stimulus to boost growth in the short term.

12/02/2019

Craig Botham

Craig Botham

Senior Emerging Markets Economist

The rise of China has been astonishing and its growing influence on the world is one of the economic forces discussed in our inescapable investment truths for the decade ahead. But economies don’t grow in a straight line. China is facing a transition period. It is a country we monitor closely and we believe its economy is currently doing worse than the official GDP data suggests.

We have constructed our own China activity indicator and find it exhibits far greater cyclicality than official GDP figures (see chart below). Our indicator includes monthly data on trade, retail sales, industrial production and investment in physical assets (such as machinery).

It captures the widely reported slowdown of 2014-15 that was largely absent from official GDP and the subsequent stimulus-led upswing in 2017. More recently, it has pointed to a renewed slowdown beginning in April 2018. Most importantly, this recent slowdown pre-dates the trade war with the US.

China's economy has slowed dramatically over the last year

Schroders China activity indicator

Source: Thomson DataStream, Schroders Economics Group. 29 January 2019.

Naturally this slower growth has prompted speculation that the Chinese authorities will take steps to stimulate the economy. This would have knock-on effects, with memories of 2009 raising hopes that such stimulus could also boost prices of industrial commodities. If history repeats itself, and China engages in massive credit and infrastructure stimulus, then prices could get a huge boost from the world's largest commodities consumer and any worries about price deflation could go away.

We do not see this happening. China looks increasingly constrained on both the fiscal and monetary policy fronts by a mix of high local government debt and concerns over financial stability and the currency.

We continue to see the main form of stimulus in China coming via central government tax cuts, rather than stimulus that might support demand for infrastructure or property. We therefore think it is highly unlikely that China will ride to the rescue of commodity prices, or global trade, on this occasion.

We will be updating our forecast for Chinese GDP soon, but a continued growth slowdown in Q1 and potentially also Q2 seems likely. Current stimulus efforts look too timid to drive a strong rebound in growth, though they may deliver stability in the second half of the year.

Important information

This communication is marketing material. The views and opinions contained herein are those of the named author(s) on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds.

This document is intended to be for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroder Investment Management Ltd (Schroders) does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

The data has been sourced by Schroders and should be independently verified before further publication or use. No responsibility can be accepted for error of fact or opinion. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended from time to time) or any other regulatory system. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in the document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions.

Past Performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested.  Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall.

Any sectors, securities, regions or countries shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be considered a recommendation to buy or sell.

The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change. Forecasts and assumptions may be affected by external economic or other factors.

Issued by Schroder Unit Trusts Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Registered Number 4191730 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.