Don’t cry for yield… – There are better ways to earn 7% than Argentinian government debt
For the ultimate proof many investors are trapped in a world of bad decisions, look away from Europe, just for a moment, and turn your gaze across the Atlantic. No, not to the US but to Argentina – so named because early settlers believed it had huge reserves of silver. The country has some – just not enough to put it in any world top 10 – and it has continued to offer false hope to investors ever since.
The latest in a long line of causes for investor optimism is Mauricio Macri, who took over as president from Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner at the end of last year. Though viewed by international investors as a much more business-friendly and reforming premier than his predecessor, he nevertheless faces a tough job turning round the country after almost a decade of her, let us say, ‘populist’ administration.
For one thing Argentina has to convince the world its economic numbers are reliable when, for some years now due – due to the real figures beginning to upset Fernandez de Kirchner – they have been anything but. And, for another thing, the country is having to pay back huge amounts of money to the hedge funds who, again for some years now, have been the only entities willing to invest in it.
Indeed, things had grown so bad, the government was having to be careful where its ships and aeroplanes travelled for fear a hedgy creditor would seize one to use as collateral. All this too against a pretty bleak economic backdrop with a recession expected later this year and CPI inflation at 35% – always assuming, of course, you trust the numbers …
Knowing all of that, how might you expect the country’s most recent foray into global bond markets to have fared? Not, presumably, that Argentina was able to raise $16.5bn (£11.1bn) in April through a sale of 10-year government bonds that ended up being almost five times oversubscribed. Yet those are not even the most interesting of the associated numbers.
That honour, we would argue, goes to the yield investors can expect if they hold the bonds to maturity – 7%. Taken in isolation, that is more than enough to catch the attention of the world’s income-seekers – and certainly in comparison to, say, the negative yield on offer from Japanese government debt. But then again, Argentina’s record of paying back its debts is somewhat shakier than Japan’s.
For the record, Argentina has been in default on its external debt for no fewer than 21 of the last 36 years and – at least for the time being – there is only one country with a worse record of defaulting over time. Put it this way, if there was such a thing as a Defaulting World Cup, Argentina would be contesting every final with Greece.
Offered by a country with such a chequered financial history, then, 7% hardly constitutes a great value opportunity and the fact the April debt sale was covered many times over is a stark indication of the challenge facing fixed income investors in their search for yield at a time of low and, in some instances, negative interest rates.
Fund Manager, Equity Value
I joined Schroders in 2015 as a member of the Value Investment team. Prior to joining Schroders I was responsible for the UK research process at Threadneedle. I began my investment career in 2001 at Dresdner Kleinwort as a Pan-European transport analyst.
The views and opinions displayed are those of Nick Kirrage, Andrew Lyddon, Kevin Murphy, Andrew Williams, Andrew Evans, Simon Adler, Juan Torres Rodriguez, Liam Nunn, Vera German and Roberta Barr, members of the Schroder Global Value Equity Team (the Value Perspective Team), and other independent commentators where stated.
They do not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders' communications, strategies or funds. The Team has expressed its own views and opinions on this website and these may change.
This article is intended to be for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information on the website when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Nothing in this article should be construed as advice. The sectors/securities shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be considered a recommendation to buy/sell.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested.