Forecast

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Blog

08NOV 2019

Admitting ‘I don’t know’ can be a positive for investors

England rugby coach Eddie Jones took some flak for saying he did not know why England performed as they did in the World Cup final – but admitting that should not be automatically viewed as a weakness

2019

JUNE

25JUN 2019

Blog

Can value investors profit from tech companies?

Markets tend to overestimate the change that can happen over the short term and underestimate the change that can happen in the long term – which is great news for patient, value-oriented investors

07JUN 2019

Blog

The Catch-22 facing UK construction businesses

The UK’s construction sector is a challenging one in which to operate and yet the reality facing businesses looking to diversify into other areas is that this is a whole lot easier said than done

APRIL

23APR 2019

Blog

When enough people guess, someone will always look like an expert

As Barack Obama’s favourite fantasy sports tournament has just shown in the US, somebody is always going to end up looking like a genius forecaster – but, ultimately, it just comes down to numbers

MARCH

19MAR 2019

Blog

Cutting the ‘Hemline Index’ down to size

Like share prices, the hemlines of skirts and dresses can go up and down – but, despite the view of one economist, that does not mean investors should use ladies’ fashions as any sort of market indicator

JANUARY

07JAN 2019

Blog

Our 2019 investment anti-forecast – Even the pros concede forecasting is an impossible job

A twice-yearly report from the Office for Budgetary Responsibility appears to acknowledge the futility of trying to forecast the future – though that apparently has not prevented its experts from trying

2018

NOVEMBER

22NOV 2018

Blog

Three excuses experts make to explain away wrong predictions

The future may be impossible to forecast although, ironically, the explanations experts tend to offer when their own pronouncements turn out to be inaccurate are all too predictable

APRIL

01MAY 2018

Blog

How to have no regrets as an investor

If investors want to avoid too many regrets then, rather than looking at the world in terms of black and white or right and wrong, they need to start thinking in terms of probabilities