Value-based guidance for one of investment’s growthiest growth sectors
Even in the hugely growth-focused private equity arena, a leading report on the sector has urged, investors would be well-advised to take their lead from the world of value
In a recent ‘Investment Warnings’ piece on the private equity market, here on The Value Perspective, we suggested some investors had grown a little too comfortable with the record-high levels of debt in that sector, with risk awareness slipping ever further down investors’ list of priorities as the hunt for returns becomes all-consuming.
Still, if that is where the sector is now, how has it reached this point?
Bain & Company’s 2019 Global Private Equity Report, proposes some possible answers.
Exit activity from private equity deals continues to be strong, it notes – the $2 trillion (£1.59 trillion) generated since 2014 is easily the largest five-year total on record – and this has led to a steady flow of capital heading back towards private equity businesses.
Indeed, as the report points out, investors were “cashflow-positive” – that is, distributions outstripped contributions – for the eighth year running in 2018, creating “a virtuous cycle” that has encouraged businesses to continue “pumping capital back into the industry”.
To offer one arresting number as an illustration, private equity firms have raised $367bn for early-stage healthcare and technology investments since 2014.
And here are a couple of even more eye-popping figures from the report: global financial capital increased 53% from 2000 to 2010, reaching some $600 trillion – or 10x real global gross domestic product – while, since the start of the current economic cycle in 2009, “investors have allocated a staggering $5.8 trillion globally to private equity, and the debt markets have been eager to finance transactions”.
Capital flows into private markets are quite simply, as the Bain analysts note, unprecedented – partly because investors have more money to put to work than ever before and partly because “financial engineering, high-speed computing and the loosening of financial regulations have unleashed a superabundance of financial assets over the past 25 years, which has transformed how both the equity and debt markets behave”.
The upshot of all this, according to Bain, is that private equity firms are now of the view their major challenge is keeping up with their gains while market analysts are now “almost unanimous” in their view that private equity’s track record will continue. Contrarians that we are, here on The Value Perspective, unanimity is something about which we are inherently suspicious.
But here’s a funny thing – Bain’s fascinating insight into one way investors are hunting for returns in today’s cheap-money world offers this pithy little conclusion: “The key imperative in cyclical deals is a deep understanding of how well a company is positioned financially and competitively. It isn’t enough to know the industry well; in diligence, firms need to test the business against robust downturn scenarios.
“This means having a firm grasp of how far earnings can fall and for how long, and exactly what levers an owner can pull to minimise the damage. It is essential to build a balance sheet that can withstand a period of economic weakness.”
In other words, this report into one of the growthiest of growth sectors in all of investment offers a deeply value-oriented conclusion expressing sentiments with which regular visitors to The Value Perspective will be very familiar.
Investment Specialist, Equity Value
I joined Schroders in 2010 as part of the Investment Communications team focusing on UK equities. In 2014 I moved across to the Value Investment team. Prior to joining Schroders I was an analyst at an independent capital markets research firm.
The views and opinions displayed are those of Nick Kirrage, Andrew Lyddon, Kevin Murphy, Andrew Williams, Andrew Evans, Simon Adler, Juan Torres Rodriguez, Liam Nunn, Vera German and Roberta Barr, members of the Schroder Global Value Equity Team (the Value Perspective Team), and other independent commentators where stated.
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