Climate Progress Dashboard - Institutional Investors

Climate Progress Dashboard – navigating risks and opportunities

Climate change is becoming a defining theme of the global economy.

The Climate Progress Dashboard monitors change indicators across the four categories that have the most influence on limiting global temperature rises: political change, business and finance, technology solutions and entrenched industry (i.e. fossil fuel use).

Dashboard

Carbon VaR

Fossil Fuels

Physical risks

Keeping track of activity: the Climate Progress Dashboard*

In December 2015, global leaders met to sign the Paris Agreement, committing to limiting the rise in global temperatures to 2^oC degrees.

This will require significant changes in political action, business & investment, technology development and fossil fuel use.

The Dashboard compares projections made by international organisations in each of those categories to estimate the temperature change implied by the current progress seen in each area.

*Temperatures are measured in degrees Celsius. Data as at 31 March 2020.

3.9°

Aggregate implied temperature rise

How to use the dashboard Read the latest update

Political change

Business and finance

Technology solution

Entrenched industry

Political ambition

2.8°

Commitment from global leaders to curb greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to our ability to limit global temperature rises. We look at the temperature rises implied by individual countries’ pledges to reduce their emissions.

The chart shows the temperature rise we can expect to see if countries meet their emissions reductions targets.

Source: Climate Action Tracker, UNFCC and Schroders analysis, latest data available as at 31 March 2020.

Corporate planning

3.4°

The private sector’s role in the low-carbon transition cannot be understated. To track corporate action to combat climate change, we use survey data from the CDP, formerly the Carbon Disclosure Project. Based on individual responses, the CDP awards performance points for corporate actions that are considered to contribute to a less carbon-intensive global economy. We assume that if all companies achieved a rating of 7 or above, the rise in global temperatures would be limited to 2^OC; if they all achieved a score of less than 3, we would see a 6^OC rise.

The chart shows how global temperatures are expected to rise based on current corporate action to reduce environmental impact.

Source: CDP latest data available as at 31 March 2020.

Electric vehicles

3.1°

To meaningfully lower global greenhouse gas emissions, we will probably need to see more electric vehicles (EVs) on the road. We track the progress being made in this area by comparing the global stock of plug-in EVs to projections that the International Energy Agency has made for electric vehicle use under different temperature scenarios.

The chart shows the likely temperature rise implied by current levels of global EV stock.

Source: IEA and Schroders estimates & analysis, latest data available as at 31 March 2020.

Oil & gas investment

3.6°

Limiting the amount invested in the oil & gas industry is required to reduce global emissions. We track how much is being invested by listed global oil & gas companies versus the amount of production growth that will keep temperatures at each of the different levels. We calculate production investment as capital expenditure as a percentage of a company’s assets.

The chart shows the temperature rise implied by current levels of oil & gas investment.

Source: Thomson Reuters, IEA, and Schroders analysis, latest data available as at 31 March 2020.

Public concern

3.3°

Public concern has been correlated with a country’s carbon emissions. We track the level of public concern about climate change by using Gallup’s annual survey on the attitudes of major countries to climate change. We assume that if 90% of respondents are concerned about climate change, the rise in global temperatures will be limited to 2^oC. If only 10% are concerned, we will see a 6^oC rise.

The chart shows the global temperature rise that is implied by current levels of public concern about climate change.

Source: Gallup, and Schroders estimates & analysis, latest data available as at 31 March 2020.

Climate finance

5.5°

Decarbonising the global economy will require significant investment in clean energy infrastructure. We compare the current level of climate finance available versus the amount needed to achieve each level of temperature rises.

The chart shows the temperature gain that can be expected at current levels of available climate finance.

Source: UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Schroders analysis, latest data available as at 31 March 2020.

Renewable capacity

3.0°

Limiting the rise in global temperatures will likely require a complete transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. We track how renewables capacity is growing relative to how much is needed to contain temperature rises to different levels.

The chart shows the temperature rise that can be expected from the current pace of renewables capacity growth.

Source: International Energy Agency, BP Statistical Review and Schroders analysis, latest data available as at 31 March 2020.

Fossil fuel reserves

4.7°

Fossil fuel producers already hold more reserves than can be consumed within a two degree temperature limit. We monitor how quickly fossil fuel reserves are growing (i.e. the supply growth) versus the fossil fuel demand growth estimated to result in the different temperature scenarios.

The chart shows the temperature rise we can expect for current levels of fossil fuel reserve growth.

Source: IEA, BP Statistical Review and Schroders analysis, latest data available as at 31 March 2020.

Political action

3.0°

The implementation of governmental policies is an important step on the journey to a low-carbon economy. We track the progress individual countries are making in implementing climate change-mitigating policies and laws, how stringent these are, and what the overall effect global effect is likely to be.

The chart shows the global temperature rise that is implied by current progress in global political action to mitigate climate change.

Source: Climate Action Tracker, IEA climate policy database and Schroders analysis, latest data available as at 31 March 2020.

Carbon prices

3.0°

Carbon pricing – a system of charging those who emit CO2 – is a way of reducing global warming emissions. We compare the current price of carbon in Europe and the US to the levels which are likely to be needed to cut greenhouse gas emissions far enough to meet climate goals.

The chart shows the temperature gain we are on track to achieve at the current carbon price.

Source: EU ETS, RGGI and Schroders estimates & analysis, latest data available as at 31 March 2020.

CCS Capacity

4.9°

One of the ways to reduce carbon emissions is to capture and store wasted CO₂underground. We monitor the headway being made in this area by comparing the level of carbon capture and storage (CCS) needed to mitigate climate change against the actual growth in CCS capacity.

The chart shows the rise in global temperatures that can be expected given current CCS capacity.

Source: IEA, Global CCS Institute and Schroders estimates & analysis, latest data available as at 31 March 2020. NOTE: Data includes projects identified by the Global CSS Institute as being in operation, construction, planned or under consideration.

Fossil fuel production

6.1°

Fossil fuels account for four-fifths of the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions so lowering global production is key to meeting climate change commitments. We track the growth in fossil fuel production compared to the levels required to contain global temperatures at each level.

The chart shows the temperature rise implied by current levels of fossil fuel production.

Source: IEA, BP Statistical Review and Schroders analysis, latest data available as at 31 March 2020.

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Climate change will be a defining driver of the global economy, society and financial markets over coming years, decades and beyond. Whether the global economy is rebuilt on less carbon intensive foundations or the temperature continues to escalate, investors will be unable to avoid its impacts.

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