Points clés


Watch: Europe's response to coronavirus assessed

Azad Zangana

Azad Zangana

Économiste senior européen et stratégiste

Voir tous les articles

Azad Zangana, Senior European Economist, discusses the efficacy of Europe's fiscal response to coronavirus.

“The efficacy of central bank actions now diminishing. It is important to focus on fiscal policy as a way to help households and businesses bridge the gap between the lost income that they are now suffering due to the disruption to activity and the costs that have to be met in order to survive.

Focused spending

“Most countries across Europe have taken different approaches, but, largely speaking, they focused on a few key areas.  

“Clearly, increased spending on healthcare has been very important in order to help the population get through the pandemic.

“But also we’ve seen an increase in the provision of benefits, short hours working and replacement of income for those workers that are furloughed and have also lost their jobs in some countries.

“We are also seeing tax breaks for some households and businesses along with many grants being offered to various sectors that are very badly impacted through this lockdown.

Size of stimulus packages

“A lot of large numbers have been bandied around recently by various governments, but you would be surprised to hear that the size of most stimulus packages are far smaller than the large numbers technically announced.

“Germany unveiled an overall package of around 4% of GDP of direct stimulus whereas France and the UK have announced about 2% of GDP. Italy has announced around 1.5% of GDP.

“The other large numbers – for example, the UK recently announced 15% of GDP – this has really been put aside as a contingent liability to help guarantee bank loans.

Reducing risk

“Now the reason why I try to make a distinction is because this will only really be spent if there is take-up of these guarantees and, of course, if loans actually turn bad.

“Does that mean that they don’t help? No, of course they do. They reduce the risk of banks. They will also help banks and encourage them to extend credit to businesses.

“Businesses will need additional liquidity at this time to meet the costs that they will incur so that they can survive long enough for activity to return.

“But I am still a little bit sceptical about how much money has been announced and whether that is going to filter through into the economy itself.

“It certainly helps ensure that the banking system remains resilient and will support confidence within it, which I think is very important at this point in time.

Europe's benefits system

“Europe’s numbers are smaller than what we will see being announced in other parts of the world, especially the US, but that’s because Europe’s social benefits system is far more generous to begin with.

“So the automatic stabilisers – as we refer to them – things like unemployment benefit, essentially, will start to kick in as soon as people apply for them if and when they lose work or lose income. This has to be factored into calculations.

Huge deficits

“Public finances are very likely to come under tremendous strain in the next couple of quarters. We could see public deficits reach 10%, maybe even more, as a share of GDP by the end of this year.

“But, as activity starts to recover, as these kinds of payments subside and, of course, as tax revenues begin to pick back up again, you should start seeing these deficits come down without the need of a huge amount of austerity, unlike what we saw after the global financial crisis.

“So, the hope is that these very broad measures that have been announced will help to make sure that as many companies as possible survive through this period and of course minimise the scale of the rise in unemployment so that we can get back to normal as quickly as possible.”

Keep up-to-date with the latest coronavirus insights and its effects on markets and the economy by adding this page to your favourites.

Information importante: Cette communication est destinée à des fins marketing. Ce document exprime les opinions de ses auteurs sur cette page. Ces opinions ne représentent pas nécessairement celles formulées ou reflétées dans d’autres supports de communication, présentations de stratégies ou de fonds de Schroders. Ce support n’est destiné qu’à des fins d’information et ne constitue nullement une publication à caractère promotionnel. Le support n’est pas destiné à représenter une offre ou une sollicitation d’achat ou de vente de tout instrument financier. Il n’est pas destiné à fournir, et ne doit pas être considéré comme un conseil comptable, juridique ou fiscal, ou des recommandations d’investissement. Il convient de ne pas se fier aux opinions et informations fournies dans le présent document pour réaliser des investissements individuels et/ou prendre des décisions stratégiques. Les performances passées ne constituent pas une indication fiable des résultats futurs. La valeur des investissements peut varier à la hausse comme à la baisse et n’est pas garantie. Tous les investissements comportent des risques, y compris celui de perte du principal. Schroders considère que les informations de la présente communication sont fiables, mais n’en garantit ni l’exhaustivité ni l’exactitude. Certaines informations citées ont été obtenues auprès de sources externes que nous estimons fiables. Nous déclinons toute responsabilité quant aux éventuelles erreurs commises par ou informations factuelles obtenues auprès de tierces parties, sachant que ces données peuvent changer en fonction des conditions de marché. Cela n’exclut en aucune manière la responsabilité de Schroders à l’égard de ses clients en vertu d’un quelconque système réglementaire. Les régions/secteurs sont présentés à titre d’illustration uniquement et ne doivent pas être considérés comme une recommandation d’achat ou de vente. Les opinions exprimées dans le présent support contiennent des énoncés prospectifs. Nous estimons que ces énoncés reposent sur nos anticipations et convictions dans des hypothèses raisonnables dans les limites de nos connaissances actuelles. Toutefois, aucune garantie ne peut être apportée quant à la réalisation future de ces anticipations et opinions. Les avis et opinions sont susceptibles de changer. Ce contenu est publié au Royaume-Uni par Schroder Investment Management Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Société immatriculée en Angleterre sous le numéro 1893220. Agréé et réglementé par la Financial Conduct Authority.