科技巨頭財報不如預期
有好幾家科技龍頭公司的第三季財報結果令人失望。Facebook母公司 Meta的財報可能是投資人最不想看到的,廣告收入減少和成本上升導致獲利衰退,特別是對人工智慧和元宇宙的投資使得成本大增,而且亞馬遜和微軟的財報也都低於市場預期,部分原因歸究為雲端運算業務的需求減緩。
美股指數和主要公司 | 10月報酬率(%) |
---|---|
標準普爾500指數 | +8.1% |
那斯達克指數 | +9.8% |
Alphabet | -1.2% |
亞馬遜 | -9.3% |
蘋果 | +11.0% |
Meta Platforms | -31.3% |
微軟 | -0.3% |
網飛 | +24.0% |
百事可樂 | +11.2% |
資料來源:Factset,報酬率為美元計價至2022/10/31。過去之績效不代表未來績效之保證,以上個股僅作舉例說明,不代表任何金融商品之推介或投資建議。
這三大公司10月的股價表現也都落後美國股市,尤其是Meta和亞馬遜。截至10月底的美股企業季報結果表現平平,第三季每股盈餘成長較預期減幅超過 1%,獲利未能達到市場預期一些大型科技公司的股價因此表現下跌。由於未來展望不佳與獲利成長疲弱,美股科技公司的大輸家是Meta和亞馬遜;而中國因為總體經濟環境處於困境,以及投資人對中共二十大的負面解讀,中國股市特別是科技股在10月的表現也相當落後;此外,我們也看到半導體產業出現獲利下修的警訊。
美股財報結果目前好壞參半
儘管如此,第三季大型科技股財報帶來的並不全然都是壞消息,蘋果的獲利略有上升,其他科技股也表現不錯。10 月並沒有出現大規模的科技股拋售情況,股價表現較積極的還有Netflix,投資人對其新廣告訂閱方案以及第三季訂閱戶數恢復成長感到興奮。此外,因為油價上漲,能源公司的獲利能力大幅提升,一些消費品牌也持續運用其定價能力,在不打擊市場需求的情況下提高產品價格,因此財報結果優於市場預期。
擁有良好現金流量、穩健的商業模式以及能夠提高商品價格來因應通膨的企業,在目前的市場波動中表現最佳。百事可樂公司今年第二季和第三季皆調漲產品價格,是近期展現定價能力的公司之一。此外,韓國電動車電池製造商三星SDI的財報結果也非常強勁。
截至10/31,美國標準普爾500指數成分股已公布財報結果的獲利年增率為2.5%,而尚未公布財報的企業,市場預估的獲利年增率為7.2%。
(資料來源:施羅德經濟團隊,Eikon,2022/10/31)
市場對未來的企業獲利預估可能仍然過度樂觀
對於前面所提及的許多公司而言,未來第四季的財報對他們2022年獲利和2023年的前景展望將更為關鍵,感恩節和聖誕節等節日對於亞馬遜和蘋果這些消費者導向的公司來說尤其重要。然而,隨著消費者為食物和能源等生活必需品支付更高的價格,且利率仍在上升,企業獲利可能受到影響。已公布財報的企業對未來幾季的獲利預估普遍下降,但仍未降至符合美國明年可能出現經濟衰退的預估水準,市場似乎對明年的企業獲利預估過於樂觀。
預估企業獲利仍有下修空間
歷史數據顯示,在2018年和2019年,標準普爾500 指數的每股盈餘為150美元,而在2020年,由於新冠疫情的影響,每股盈餘下降至125美元。2021年市場出現強勁的復甦反彈,每股盈餘成長至193美元,成長動能也持續到今年第一季和第二季。因此當時市場普遍預估標準普爾500指數2022年的每股盈餘將達到230美元。
然而,在這之後市場開始預期第三季的成長將減緩,但未來仍將會重新加速。在第四季開始之前,分析師預測美股2023年的獲利將進一步成長10%。這些預估數字代表過度樂觀的情境,而未來企業獲利預估能可能還會持續下修。
美股通常提前6~9個月反應企業獲利觸底
美股企業獲利有可能會在2023年年中左右降至谷底,由於股市通常會提前6~9個月反映獲利下修的預期,因此,我們很可能正在接近股價估值反映企業獲利谷底的階段,這將為投資股票創造逢低進場的時機。此外,除了企業獲利和股價表現外,第三季財報也透露了一些就業市場的展望。科技產業降低成本的壓力越來越大,這代表科技業可能必須開始裁員,如此一來將會衝擊就業市場,因為科技業一直是美國就業人數持續強勁成長的關鍵因素之一。
Global equities portfolio manager Frank Thormann said: “The big tech losers in the US were Meta Platforms and Amazon, due to weak outlooks as well as weak earnings.
“Looking further afield, Chinese stocks – particularly the tech sector - had a weak October due to rising macroeconomic concerns and negative investor interpretation of the Party Congress. In addition, we are seeing increasing profit warnings from the semiconductor sector.”
That said, it hasn’t all been bad news for big tech this quarter. Apple posted a slight rise in earnings and other tech stocks performed well too.
“There was no widespread tech sell-off in October,” Frank Thormann said. “Positive tech stand-outs include Netflix, where investors are excited about the new ad-supported subscriber offering and a resumption of growth in subscribers in Q3”.
News from certain other sectors has been encouraging too.
“The energy companies have seen their profitability surge thanks to the higher oil price,” said Tina Fong. “Some consumer names are also still benefitting from pricing power and beating consensus expectations.”
Pricing power refers to a company's ability to raise prices without reducing demand for their products.
Alex Tedder, Head of Global and Thematic Equities, said: “Companies with good cashflows, solid business models and the ability to raise prices to offset inflation are faring best in the current volatile markets.
“PepsiCo is one example of a company demonstrating pricing power over recent quarters, putting through price rises in Q2 and Q3 this year.”
Frank Thormann added: “Some electric vehicle battery makers, such as Samsung SDI in South Korea, have also posted very strong quarterly results.”
The Q3 earnings season is still ongoing. So far, of the S&P 500 companies that have reported as of 31 October, earnings are up 2.5% year-on-year (y/y). For those still to report, consensus estimates are looking for 7.2% growth y/y (source: Schroders Economics Team, Eikon, as at 31 October).
Market earnings forecasts may be over-optimistic
For many of the companies mentioned above, the current quarter will be even more critical for their 2022 earnings and 2023 outlook. The Thanksgiving and Christmas periods are especially important for consumer-oriented firms like Amazon and Apple.
With consumers paying higher prices for essentials such as food and energy, and interest rates still going up, corporate earnings may suffer.
“Earnings guidance for the reporting companies over the coming quarters have generally come down, but not enough to account for the prospect of an US recession next year, said Tina Fong”
It does seem that market estimates may be overly optimistic about corporate earnings for next year in particular.
“It’s instructive to look at the wider context,” said Frank Thormann. “In 2018 and 2019, earnings per share (EPS) for the S&P 500 was $150. Then in 2020 there was a decline down to $125 due to the pandemic.
“In 2021 there was an extremely strong recovery, taking EPS to around $193, and that momentum continued into Q1 and Q2 this year as well. By the midpoint of this year, consensus expectations for 2022 EPS for the S&P 500 were around $230.
“More recently, forecasts had been pointing to a growth slowdown for Q3, but with a re-acceleration after that. Before the start of the current earnings season, analysts were forecasting a further 10% earnings growth in 2023.
“Those figures represent a ‘blue sky’ scenario. Even prior to the results we’ve seen so far for Q3, my expectations were lower.”
This suggests there could be more downgrades to come, but stock markets usually price in such downgrades before they happen.
“We think corporate earnings are likely to trough around the middle of next year,” Alex Tedder said. “The market typically starts to price in earnings six to nine months ahead. So we may already be approaching the point where this is reflected in valuations and that will create a floor for equities.”
Finally, aside from profits and share price performance, this quarterly earnings season may also shed some light on the labour market outlook.
Tina Fong said: “Tech companies are coming under increasing pressure to cut costs. This is likely to mean job cuts which would hit the labour market as this sector has been one of key contributors to the strong jobs growth in the US.”
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