I can see clearly now. The way forward.
Johnny Nash could see clearly, and what he saw was a bright, bright, sun-shiny day. If only it was so easy for investors.
Some of you may have seen the program “The New Inventors” on the ABC. One of the guys who is occasionally on the panel describes his occupation as ‘Futurist’. This occupational description has always intrigued me, as I have absolutely no idea what the day to day activities of a futurist might involve. The Oxford dictionary defines a futurist as “One who studies the future and makes predictions about it”. Making predictions about the future sounds relatively easy (and particularly attractive, as the normally uncomfortable annual assessment process endured by most employees could be deferred annually on the basis of one’s predictions having not yet come to fruition), however, studying the future strikes me as somewhat more problematic, given that it hasn’t happened yet. This job is sounding more attractive by the minute! In the comfortable position of knowing that it will prove difficult (at least for a while) to prove my predictions totally wrong, I have decided to try and ‘study the future’.
The tendency for analysts and humans generally to extrapolate, has always interested me. Much of the sentiment that drives economies and markets stems from extrapolation. For some reason, humans feel more comfortable assuming that the future is likely to resemble the past. In my newly adopted role of Futurist, I am going to make a few bold predictions that question the wisdom of this extrapolation and highlight a few areas in which investors might want to reconsider this approach.
Opinions, estimates and projections in this article constitute the current judgement of the author as of the date of this article. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Schroder Investment Management Australia Limited, ABN 22 000 443 274, AFS Licence 226473 ("Schroders") or any member of the Schroders Group and are subject to change without notice. In preparing this document, we have relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources or which was otherwise reviewed by us. Schroders does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this article. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, Schroders and its directors, employees, consultants or any company in the Schroders Group do not accept any liability (whether arising in contract, in tort or negligence or otherwise) for any error or omission in this article or for any resulting loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise) suffered by the recipient of this article or any other person. This document does not contain, and should not be relied on as containing any investment, accounting, legal or tax advice. Schroders may record and monitor telephone calls for security, training and compliance purposes.