Euro 2016: How do the economies compare? Part 2
As the 2016 UEFA European Football Championship (Euro 2016) heads into its knockout stages, we looked at the economic health of the 24 nations involved and pitted the nations against each other in a game of economic “Top Trumps” to find out who would come out on top.
23 June 2016
With the global economy and its struggles a major focus for investors, we took a look at the economic health of each nation involved in the Euro 2016 football tournament.
Top Trumps tournament structure
We used seven criteria to compare each nation:
- GDP growth
- Debt to GDP
- Unemployment rate
- Human Development Index (HDI) ranking
- Corruption ranking
- FIFA ranking
How does the tournament work?
As with Euro 2016 there is a group stage where each nation within their respective group goes head-to-head once. That is followed by the knockout stages: a round of 16, quarter finals, semi-finals and final.
A match involves two nations playing directly against each other. Each individual criteria is compared against the other like-for-like. A nation gets one point for each indicator which has the most favourable value.
For example, low unemployment beats high unemployment = 1 point; high growth beats low growth = 1 point; and inflation as close to the global long-term average of 3.18%1 beats inflation further away = 1 point, and so on.
The nation with the most points out of a possible 7 is declared the winner. In the event of a tie the nation with the best odds of winning the Euro 2016 football tournament is declared the winner.
Just like in Euro 2016, 3 points are awarded for a win, 1 point for a draw and 0 points for a loss.
And the winner is...
To find out how the group stages played out click here.
Click the links below to find out how the knockout stages evolved and which country was the eventual winner.
Round of 16 - part one
Romania and Hungary progress after epic matches
Romania made it through to the quarter finals after an epic tussle with Northern Ireland. The match-up was tied at 3-3, but was decided by who has the shortest odds at the bookmakers to win Euro 2016. Romania won with odds of 200-1, compared with Northern Ireland’s 400-1.
Hungary squeezed past the Republic of Ireland in another close encounter. It was finally decided by Hungary’s better FIFA ranking.
England white-washed France 7-0. Meanwhile, the 4-3 score line between the Czech Republic and Belgium flattered the Belgians. The Czechs stormed out to an unassailable 4-0 lead to win the tie early in the match-up.
Round of 16 - part two
The Welsh dragon melts Icelandic hearts
The tie of the section came between Wales and Iceland. Iceland raced out to a 3-1 lead showing better metrics for debt to GDP, unemployment and Inflation. But Wales surged back to take the tie on better HDI, corruption and FIFA ranking.
Germany hammered Austria across all metrics to run out 7-0 winners and advance to the quarter-finals. Sweden and Switzerland joined them after they both registered comfortable 5-2 victories over Spain and Poland, respectively.
Czechs conquer Romania to make last four
Romania and the Czech Republic enjoyed a close encounter up until the HDI and corruption rankings, which went in the Czech Republic’s favour.
England joined the Czechs in the semi-finals despite slipping behind 3-1 early on to Hungary. England came racing back to win 4-3 with better HDI, corruption and FIFA rankings. Germany saw off Sweden, conceding only 2 points on the way to victory.
Switzerland became the last semi-finalist as it won a hard fought contest with Wales 5-2, with better corruption and FIFA rankings.
Semi-finals and final
Semi-finals: Germany's shock exit and England's shock progress
It was tight up to the half-way point between the Czech Republic and England, but better HDI, corruption and FIFA rankings sealed England a place in the final with a 5-2 win.
The shock of the round saw Germany dumped out of the competition by Switzerland. The match was level at 2-2 heading into the HDI, corruption and FIFA rankings, but with better metrics on the former two Switzerland leapt out to an unassailable 4-2 lead to make the final.
Final: Swiss prove too strong for England
England met Switzerland in the final in a tight affair. While England took the lead on better GDP, Switzerland scored 2 points without reply with better debt to GDP and unemployment metrics.
England levelled things up with higher inflation, but Switzerland proved too strong on HDI and corruption rankings to take an unbeatable 4-2 lead and win the Euro 2016 Economic Top Trump Championships.
1. Average annual inflation 1913-2015: http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation/DecadeInflation.asp↩
Important Information: The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author(s) on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds. This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in this document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of an investment can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. All investments involve risks including the risk of possible loss of principal. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroders does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Some information quoted was obtained from external sources we consider to be reliable. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact obtained from third parties, and this data may change with market conditions. This does not exclude any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under any regulatory system. Regions/ sectors shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy/sell. The opinions in this material include some forecasted views. We believe we are basing our expectations and beliefs on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of what we currently know. However, there is no guarantee than any forecasts or opinions will be realised. These views and opinions may change. To the extent that you are in North America, this content is issued by Schroder Investment Management North America Inc., an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Schroders plc and SEC registered adviser providing asset management products and services to clients in the US and Canada. For all other users, this content is issued by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 31 Gresham Street, London, EC2V 7QA. Registered No. 1893220 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.