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Talking Economics - Is the Chinese economy rebalancing?
7 May 2013
The recent fall in Chinese growth was caused by a reduced contribution from investment, consistent with the story of rebalancing towards consumption and away from investment. However, rebalancing is likely to be a long process with China still facing substantial investment requirements.
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Talking Economics - Another year of ‘sell in May'?
3 May 2013
Evidence is building of a slowdown in global growth, repeating the pattern seen in recent years where a strong start to the year fades in the spring.
We see the current downshift as a consequence of the inventory cycle and tighter fiscal policy in the US against an ongoing backdrop of fiscal austerity and bank deleveraging in Europe.
The Value Perspective News
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Grains of truth - The three factors that exacerbate stockmarket stress points
17 May 2013
William Blake once wrote about the ability "to see the world in a grain of sand" and, while romantic poetry might be a little outside the usual scope of The Value Perspective, we were interested to read financial writer John Maudlin's recent thoughts on how grains of sand could offer some insight into the world of investing.
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Politically incorrect - Unfortunately investment considerations often come second to politics
15 May 2013
When to sell? It is, by common consensus, one of the most difficult areas of investment to get right. However given the increasingly loud calls, not least from the banks themselves, for the government to reduce its 39% and 82% stakes in, respectively, Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) – we will at some point have a very public case study in the psychology of selling assets. For the record, we continue to believe both banks remain relatively attractive at current share prices, we use them here as a high profile example of why selling decisions can be so difficult.
