Schroders Equity Lens November 2024: your go-to guide to global equity markets
Post-election surge drives US equities to a 27% gain this year vs 5% for Europe. And is a small cap revival underway?
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Summary:
- US equities have soared on the back of Trump’s victory and are up 27% YTD. In contrast, Europe ex UK equities are up 5% YTD in USD terms (slides 5-6).
- Performance has broadened out with many sectors performing well (slide 7).
- US small caps are now beating large caps (slide 8). Smaller companies are:
- cheaper in valuation terms, within the US and internationally (slides 30-31),
- more domestically focussed than large caps, so stand to benefit from Trump’s domestic priority (slide 9)
- have more floating rate debt, the cost of which falls as the Fed cuts rates
- Small caps have also particularly enjoyed the current 1-3% inflation environment in the past. This range of outcomes has been wide, however, and much wider than large caps (slides 13-16). Small caps are riskier.
- The narrative that the Magnificent-7 are the sole driver of stock market returns has passed its use-by date. But, if you track the global market, you get a lot of exposure to them, less to the wider opportunities (slides 10-11).
Other than the intro slides, which capture the post-US-election market moves to 8 November, all other slides are as at 31 October, unless clearly stated otherwise.
Chart of the month:
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