Economic and Strategy Viewpoint - September 2020

  • Global GDP growth in 2020 has been upgraded to -4.6% from -5.4%, driven by a significant revision to the US after a better-than-expected performance in Q2. Near-term the forecast path for growth resembles a square root sign; overall it is still a U.
  • Inflation is expected to remain subdued allowing central banks to keep policy loose with no rate rises in the forecast. However, we do see some easing in the pace of quantitative easing as growth continues through 2021.
  • We anticipate a change in occupancy at the White House although Congress is expected to remain split after the election. This could limit the new President's room for manoeuvre on fiscal policy although international trade tensions may ease.
  • We still see the risk of a second wave, but overall the balance of risks has shifted in a slightly more reflationary direction led by a switch in our scenarios and a continued chance of a V-shape recovery.

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Economic and Strategy Viewpoint - September 2020 16 pages | 477 kb